NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	2.9 [1161]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +13.2%
Golden State Warriors	97		Comeback	1.0 [783]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -7.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.17	0.00	0.04	10	90%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.02	9	64%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.04	6	94%	0.09	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Jason Caffey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	10	62%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	18	61%	0.08	5	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	15	39%	0.00	1	-0.00	3	67%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	8	36%	-0.02	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	7	45%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	9	56%	-0.02	2	-0.01	16	81%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	12	46%	0.00	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	13	32%	-0.07	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0.00	24	43%	-0.04	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.7	26.5	15.5	28.2	2.5	30.5	130.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +59.4%

GSW -9.3%

GSW -1.1%

MIL +2.8%

GSW -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	15.6	114.1	100.0	102.3
season	15.3	14.7		104.7	100.7
opponent	15.1	16.0		106.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.4	14.4	15.5	15.5	14.7
GSW	14.8	14.4	15.2	14.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	86	84	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.25	26	-10	36	13.6	21.5	-7.90	15.0	12.5	2.51
Ervin Johnson	49	46	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	-3	22	14.7	14.7	-0.05	16.5	13.1	3.44
Michael Redd	47	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	3	10	15.7	13.8	1.87	15.3	14.2	1.07
Darvin Ham	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	12	-8	16.0	13.8	2.22	14.5	14.9	-0.39
Jason Caffey	36	37	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	9	-2	15.2	14.3	0.90	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Tim Thomas	60	58	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.05	9	7	2	13.7	16.1	-2.39	14.6	14.8	-0.18
Ray Allen	75	75	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	16	-16	14.9	13.9	1.00	14.0	17.0	-3.02
Anthony Mason	65	66	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	12	-8	14.5	15.0	-0.45	14.6	14.9	-0.28
Joel Przybilla	29	28	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	14	-12	14.4	14.8	-0.42	13.9	15.0	-1.10
Mark Pope	4	4	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	18	-20	16.7	14.6	2.16	7.7	15.0	-7.26
Rafer Alston	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	21.0	14.5	6.52	10.0	14.8	-4.81

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-15	14	14.5	14.9	-0.32	14.9	14.5	0.37
Marc Jackson	29	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-12	8	12.6	15.6	-2.98	15.5	14.3	1.13
Danny Fortson	67	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-17	18	14.7	14.7	0.06	14.5	15.1	-0.66
Larry Hughes	70	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-13	10	14.1	16.3	-2.14	15.2	13.4	1.74
Antawn Jamison	82	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-17	18	14.0	18.6	-4.60	15.1	12.2	2.87
Mookie Blaylock	27	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-3	-10	16.3	14.1	2.14	13.4	15.2	-1.74
Chris Mills	33	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	-4	-8	15.7	14.2	1.45	14.3	14.9	-0.52
Bob Sura	38	39	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.17	-17	1	-18	16.3	13.7	2.64	14.2	15.0	-0.82
Troy Murphy	26	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.23	-20	4	-24	17.3	13.8	3.49	14.8	14.6	0.13
Jason Richardson	67	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	-4	-8	14.2	15.8	-1.62	14.3	15.4	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 114, DEN 109	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%
DAL 110, HOU 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
NYK 128, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%