NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	5.3 [744]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +7.9%
Atlanta Hawks	96		Comeback	2.1 [616]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (MIN): -12.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.08	0.00	18	58%	0.19	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Felipe Lopez	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	92%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Gary Trent	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	15	57%	0.03	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.02
Anthony Peeler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
William Avery	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.03	17	45%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	12	67%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	5	100%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	15	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	21	43%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.3	26.7	14.8	25.2	1.7	31.6	127.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +21.3%

MIN +9.2%

MIN +32.5%

ATL -14.7%

MIN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ATL	NBA	MIN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	15.6	116.7	100.0	102.3
season	15.0	15.5		106.7	99.7
opponent	15.2	16.1		103.9	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.7	13.6	16.2	18.0	15.5
ATL	12.6	15.8	15.1	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	80	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.04	20	-4	24	15.4	16.0	-0.57	14.6	13.6	1.03
Chauncey Billups	69	68	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.05	19	-3	22	16.0	14.2	1.86	14.8	13.7	1.13
Anthony Peeler	63	62	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.08	18	-2	20	15.6	15.4	0.19	14.8	14.0	0.79
Wally Szczerbiak	80	80	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.07	13	3	10	15.7	14.7	0.93	14.4	14.6	-0.17
Loren Woods	32	32	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	5	6	16.8	14.9	1.98	16.0	13.7	2.28
Rasho Nesterovic	55	57	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	13	-10	14.4	17.0	-2.58	13.9	15.3	-1.44
Felipe Lopez	22	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	16	-16	14.4	15.9	-1.50	13.9	14.7	-0.81
Gary Trent	64	62	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	18	-20	16.3	14.0	2.28	13.9	15.5	-1.58
William Avery	15	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	18	-20	12.2	16.1	-3.94	13.3	14.7	-1.36

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	7	7	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.11	-3	-13	10	12.0	14.7	-2.67	16.9	15.4	1.44
Cal Bowdler	14	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-15	14	15.2	14.4	0.86	17.9	15.1	2.82
Jacque Vaughn	19	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-10	4	15.5	14.2	1.31	13.5	16.0	-2.49
Emanual Davis	59	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-14	12	14.2	14.9	-0.67	15.5	15.6	-0.12
Nazr Mohammed	42	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-10	4	14.4	14.6	-0.22	14.2	16.5	-2.26
Toni Kukoc	57	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-12	8	14.4	14.6	-0.19	15.9	15.0	0.82
DerMarr Johnson	39	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	-4	-8	14.6	14.4	0.19	15.0	15.9	-0.82
Hanno Mottola	42	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-5	-6	14.9	14.1	0.80	16.1	15.1	1.01
Dion Glover	37	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	-2	-12	14.9	14.2	0.67	15.6	15.5	0.12
Jason Terry	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	-6	-4	14.2	15.5	-1.31	16.0	13.5	2.49
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	87	87	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-5	-6	14.4	15.2	-0.82	15.4	17.1	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.55,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 89, ORL 79	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.8%
UTA 91, PHI 79	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
PHI 107, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.23,0.1,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%