NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	2.8 [1177]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +10.9%
Boston Celtics	66		Comeback	1.0 [365]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -7.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	12	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	14	68%	0.09	4	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	6	43%	0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	47%	0.02	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	11	27%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	11	48%	-0.02	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	4	8%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	12	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	15	33%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	0.04	19	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.3	27.4	15.7	23.6	1.7	28.2	120.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.0%

BOS -2.8%

MIA +12.0%

BOS -10.4%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.9	15.1	15.6	98.9	73.3	102.3
season	16.5	15.0		96.6	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	17.1	19.4	15.9	16.9
BOS	15.4	16.4	12.7	16.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	67	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.24	24	-1	25	17.2	15.7	1.50	15.3	14.8	0.50
Brian Grant	64	67	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.29	25	-2	27	17.5	15.2	2.34	15.3	14.8	0.43
Rod Strickland	56	56	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.28	24	-1	25	17.3	16.1	1.19	15.4	14.8	0.61
Jim Jackson	73	73	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.16	18	5	13	16.7	17.4	-0.69	14.9	16.1	-1.20
Alonzo Mourning	56	58	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.29	21	2	19	17.0	16.6	0.48	15.8	14.0	1.73
LaPhonso Ellis	39	37	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	18	-13	16.4	17.2	-0.83	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Kendall Gill	40	38	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	19	-15	16.4	17.2	-0.73	15.4	15.0	0.39
Eddie House	34	34	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	24	-25	16.1	17.3	-1.19	14.8	15.4	-0.61
Chris Gatling	15	13	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	25	-27	16.0	17.0	-1.03	13.5	15.4	-1.88
Vladimir Stepania	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	26	-29	13.2	17.1	-3.95	12.4	15.3	-2.91

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kedrick Brown	21	21	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.14	-4	-19	15	15.2	15.1	0.12	14.3	17.6	-3.29
Milt Palacio	19	20	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-18	13	15.3	15.1	0.22	15.8	17.2	-1.36
Erick Strickland	35	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-16	9	14.1	15.8	-1.73	18.5	15.8	2.71
Mark Blount	20	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.12	-9	-14	5	15.9	14.9	1.04	16.0	17.1	-1.18
Vitaly Potapenko	46	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	-14	5	15.7	14.6	1.04	16.2	17.5	-1.27
Tony Battie	29	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-15	7	13.9	15.7	-1.84	17.7	16.4	1.27
Joe Johnson	34	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.18	-14	-9	-5	15.9	14.7	1.19	15.2	17.9	-2.76
Eric Williams	37	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-17	11	15.7	14.8	0.90	16.3	17.3	-0.99
Kenny Anderson	61	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	-9	-5	14.9	15.7	-0.80	17.3	15.8	1.55
Antoine Walker	70	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.15	-22	-1	-21	15.2	14.8	0.44	17.6	14.3	3.35
Paul Pierce	78	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	-6	-11	15.1	15.7	-0.70	17.3	14.5	2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 97, DET 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.9%
PHX 106, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
NOH 99, CHA 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.7%