NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	92		Excitement	6.7 [471]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +19.3%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	1.8 [716]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (UTA): -32.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Crotty	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.06	0.03	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
John Stockton	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Jarron Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Greg Ostertag	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	15	58%	0.03	2	-0.07	8	75%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	5	20%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.32	-0.15	-0.16	0.01	16	42%	-0.12	5	-0.20	6	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	22	62%	0.23	1	-0.04	14	86%	0.04
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	9	86%	0.15	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	35%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-0.02	15	53%	0.02	7	-0.20	6	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.6	23.3	14.7	22.6	2.0	36.2	124.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +24.2%

BOS +9.4%

BOS +0.7%

BOS +10.9%

BOS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	BOS	NBA	UTA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.6	98.9	104.3	102.3
season	16.1	15.0		102.9	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		98.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	18.2	17.2	15.8	13.9	16.2
BOS	14.5	15.5	15.5	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	38	38	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.05	10	-16	26	14.6	17.3	-2.76	14.7	14.6	0.14
Greg Ostertag	11	11	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-10	14	16.0	16.2	-0.21	16.7	14.3	2.38
John Starks	16	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-5	4	13.5	16.7	-3.24	11.9	15.2	-3.28
John Crotty	57	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.38	7	-13	20	14.9	18.2	-3.37	14.3	15.1	-0.84
DeShawn Stevenson	42	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	5	-16	18.6	14.2	4.36	15.1	14.2	0.92
Jarron Collins	55	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	4	-14	17.9	13.7	4.27	15.2	13.8	1.44
John Stockton	53	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.18	-14	8	-22	16.9	15.2	1.64	14.7	14.5	0.20
Karl Malone	82	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.30	-10	4	-14	16.2	16.0	0.21	14.3	16.7	-2.38
Donyell Marshall	70	70	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.25	-16	10	-26	17.1	13.3	3.77	14.9	13.8	1.12

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Anderson	73	73	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.29	14	-8	22	14.7	14.5	0.13	16.3	15.7	0.55
Paul Pierce	88	85	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-8	22	14.4	18.3	-3.96	16.2	16.5	-0.35
Tony Battie	42	44	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.40	9	-3	12	15.1	14.3	0.80	17.0	15.5	1.46
Erick Strickland	41	41	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	5	-4	15.0	14.3	0.70	15.7	16.6	-0.85
Antoine Walker	84	83	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	8	-10	14.4	16.8	-2.43	16.1	16.7	-0.58
Eric Williams	57	54	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	4	-2	14.4	15.0	-0.61	15.7	16.8	-1.05
Joe Johnson	35	37	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	11	-16	15.7	14.0	1.78	17.2	15.5	1.63
Mark Blount	9	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	9	-12	17.6	14.3	3.24	15.6	16.2	-0.61
Vitaly Potapenko	41	40	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.10	0	6	-6	13.5	15.5	-1.94	15.6	16.6	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.78,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 76, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1	94.5%
CHI 93, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	93.0%
POR 87, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.57,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.99,1	92.9%