NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	101		Excitement	5.4 [741]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +25.1%
Dallas Mavericks	113		Comeback	1.2 [941]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -18.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	12	64%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.01	0.03	9	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	3	53%	-0.00	3	-0.08	9	67%	-0.00
Ray Allen	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	23	45%	0.02	5	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	15	36%	-0.10	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.03	0.07	21	45%	-0.12	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.19	0.06	-0.01	18	80%	0.30	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.03	-0.03	31	52%	0.13	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	11	65%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	65%	0.01	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	70%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.19	-0.04	-0.04	14	27%	-0.09	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	26.4	16.6	26.2	1.8	24.1	121.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +67.5%

MIL -14.5%

MIL -5.5%

DAL +4.5%

MIL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DAL	NBA	MIL	DAL	NBA
this game	15.4	13.9	15.6	103.1	114.1	102.3
season	15.3	14.8		104.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	16.0		105.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.1	14.3	17.0	15.1	15.4
DAL	10.2	14.5	14.3	17.6	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-13	14	6.2	15.9	-9.66	19.2	13.6	5.60
Rafer Alston	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	9.7	15.9	-6.28	19.0	13.4	5.63
Darvin Ham	57	56	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.38	11	-23	34	14.9	16.0	-1.09	15.2	12.1	3.07
Michael Redd	51	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-13	14	15.2	15.6	-0.36	14.9	12.7	2.20
Ervin Johnson	24	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-10	8	15.6	15.3	0.34	13.5	14.0	-0.50
Joel Przybilla	19	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.11	-10	-2	-8	16.2	15.2	0.98	10.3	14.8	-4.48
Glenn Robinson	66	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	0	-12	16.0	14.1	1.89	13.5	14.6	-1.09
Sam Cassell	68	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	1	-14	15.3	15.5	-0.19	12.5	16.8	-4.31
Anthony Mason	69	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-1	-10	15.9	14.0	1.94	13.6	14.5	-0.85
Ray Allen	71	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.14	-20	8	-28	16.0	13.7	2.25	13.1	15.9	-2.76
Tim Thomas	51	53	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-2	-8	15.2	15.6	-0.40	15.1	12.4	2.70

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	82	81	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.01	21	-9	30	13.5	15.7	-2.21	15.2	16.0	-0.77
Juwan Howard	82	80	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	1	10	13.7	14.7	-1.00	14.7	18.3	-3.63
Michael Finley	99	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	13.9	0.0	13.88	15.4	0.0	15.37
Danny Manning	58	56	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	4	4	13.0	15.1	-2.12	15.9	14.6	1.31
Dirk Nowitzki	68	69	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.03	11	1	10	13.2	15.3	-2.01	15.9	14.2	1.70
Eduardo Najera	47	47	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	15	-18	15.4	12.5	2.94	16.8	14.1	2.73
Evan Eschmeyer	14	14	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	8	-4	13.7	13.9	-0.19	15.1	15.4	-0.35
Tim Hardaway	43	42	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.19	-6	18	-24	15.5	12.6	2.89	14.6	15.9	-1.31
Wang Zhi-zhi	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	10	-8	13.0	13.9	-0.90	4.3	15.7	-11.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 92, SAS 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DAL 76, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%
SAS 99, CHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%