NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	80		Excitement	3.5 [1072]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +15.6%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	1.2 [1180]		LVP	James Posey (DEN): -18.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	9	76%	0.10	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	2	0%	0.00	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	20	40%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	13	48%	-0.00	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.00
George McCloud	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
James Posey	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.03	-0.01	9	11%	-0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.04	-0.01	23	62%	0.16	1	-0.00	10	90%	0.02
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	5	69%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	67%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	23	55%	0.04	4	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	13	38%	-0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.0	24.3	15.4	22.4	2.4	24.6	113.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +18.8%

BOS +8.3%

BOS +8.4%

BOS +14.9%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	15.6	87.0	104.4	102.3
season	16.1	15.0		99.7	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.2		98.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.5	16.2	15.9	14.7	16.1
BOS	13.1	15.1	14.1	19.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-19	23	15.0	16.2	-1.22	17.9	15.1	2.83
Kenny Satterfield	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-19	23	15.0	16.2	-1.22	17.9	15.1	2.83
Shawnelle Scott	19	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-22	29	14.3	16.6	-2.30	19.5	14.3	5.23
Calbert Cheaney	60	59	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-16	17	15.5	17.1	-1.54	16.1	14.0	2.09
Scott Williams	25	26	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	-7	-1	17.4	15.6	1.80	13.8	16.0	-2.21
Voshon Lenard	52	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-16	17	15.9	16.3	-0.33	16.5	13.9	2.65
Ryan Bowen	46	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	-8	1	16.7	15.5	1.13	15.8	15.0	0.78
George McCloud	36	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	-3	-9	15.7	16.4	-0.69	14.2	16.2	-1.97
James Posey	38	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-2	-11	17.1	15.4	1.65	13.9	16.4	-2.56
Raef LaFrentz	48	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	-1	-13	16.1	16.0	0.08	14.6	16.2	-1.66
Avery Johnson	60	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	-1	-13	15.6	17.0	-1.40	15.1	15.9	-0.84
Nick Van Exel	56	56	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.20	-24	9	-33	16.9	14.9	1.97	14.4	16.9	-2.53

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	75	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-2	19	15.5	14.6	0.92	16.4	14.7	1.70
Paul Pierce	77	79	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.09	19	-4	23	15.0	17.7	-2.75	16.2	15.4	0.82
Joe Johnson	55	54	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	4	7	15.9	14.6	1.28	16.5	15.5	1.04
Tony Battie	59	57	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	5	5	15.5	15.2	0.30	15.9	16.4	-0.46
Kenny Anderson	49	47	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	7	1	15.5	15.3	0.23	15.8	16.4	-0.53
Milt Palacio	32	35	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.14	11	4	7	14.4	15.9	-1.46	16.7	15.7	1.06
Vitaly Potapenko	32	35	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	10	-5	15.2	15.5	-0.30	16.4	15.9	0.46
Eric Williams	22	22	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.16	10	5	5	12.4	16.3	-3.92	16.5	16.0	0.54
Erick Strickland	29	29	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	19	-23	16.1	15.0	1.11	14.8	16.7	-1.94
Kedrick Brown	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	19	-23	17.9	15.1	2.83	15.0	16.2	-1.22
Randy Brown	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	19	-23	17.9	15.1	2.83	15.0	16.2	-1.22
Mark Blount	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	19	-23	17.6	15.3	2.34	13.4	16.2	-2.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 77, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
CHA 89, BKN 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
DAL 90, LAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%