NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	88		Excitement	7.8 [265]		MVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): +16.5%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	1.6 [975]		LVP	Jason Williams (MEM): -29.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	15	61%	0.23	4	-0.18	3	33%	-0.03
Rodney Buford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	20	45%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	18	49%	0.02	2	-0.09	9	67%	-0.02
Brevin Knight	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	6	62%	0.02	3	-0.14	1	0%	-0.03
Lorenzen Wright	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25	-0.14	-0.10	0.01	11	44%	-0.04	6	-0.21	3	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	-0.30	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.33,-0.27,-0.3	-0.18	-0.13	-0.01	15	22%	-0.18	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.08	-0.04	15	59%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.01	12	64%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Tracy Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	4	33%	-0.02	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	21	50%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	10	42%	-0.07	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	28.6	15.7	29.0	1.7	32.5	132.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +2.3%

TOR +14.8%

TOR +8.8%

TOR +25.5%

MEM -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	TOR	NBA	MEM	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	14.2	15.6	91.7	92.9	102.3
season	15.7	16.2		96.0	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.2		100.9	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.7	16.4	16.2	12.8	15.5
TOR	12.1	15.7	13.2	16.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	36	37	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.00	10	-13	23	16.2	15.1	1.16	14.9	13.8	1.15
Pau Gasol	80	82	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.39	7	-10	17	15.2	17.0	-1.80	14.9	10.7	4.20
Lorenzen Wright	85	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.48	3	-6	9	14.9	20.0	-5.08	14.2	14.2	-0.05
Jason Williams	75	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.38	-1	-2	1	15.2	16.7	-1.49	14.5	13.1	1.41
Tony Massenburg	27	28	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	13	-29	18.2	14.4	3.79	12.2	15.0	-2.79
Shane Battier	90	92	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	3	-9	15.5	15.2	0.36	13.9	19.5	-5.64
Rodney Buford	87	88	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.50	-12	9	-21	15.5	15.9	-0.43	14.0	16.0	-2.00

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	64	63	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.51	13	-10	23	13.8	15.0	-1.26	14.9	16.6	-1.64
Alvin Williams	78	76	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.52	7	-4	11	13.9	15.3	-1.38	15.1	17.0	-1.89
Antonio Davis	85	82	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.41	8	-5	13	13.8	16.7	-2.87	15.2	17.3	-2.09
Vince Carter	93	91	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-4	11	13.9	20.4	-6.53	15.4	18.0	-2.64
Keon Clark	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.00	11	-8	19	12.6	15.2	-2.54	16.9	14.6	2.22
Hakeem Olajuwon	46	45	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.33	-6	9	-15	15.8	12.8	3.02	15.1	15.8	-0.73
Tracy Murray	9	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	4	-5	12.0	14.4	-2.43	14.7	15.6	-0.82
Jerome Williams	34	33	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	10	-17	14.9	13.8	1.13	16.2	15.1	1.09
Dell Curry	17	17	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.06	-8	11	-19	16.2	13.8	2.46	17.1	15.2	1.97
Chris Childs	27	28	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.06	-9	12	-21	16.4	13.4	2.99	16.4	15.1	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.71,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.86,0.96,1	92.4%
MEM 100, OKC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.99,1	91.9%
MEM 111, SAC 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.8,0.47,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.96,1	91.8%