NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	111		Excitement	7.9 [273]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (MEM): +27.9%
Sacramento Kings	115		Comeback	2.0 [883]		LVP	Kenny Thomas (SAC): -11.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.22	0.09	0.03	11	93%	0.39	2	-0.11	7	86%	0.02
Mike Miller	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	71%	0.16	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	9	71%	0.15	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Lawrence Roberts	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	47%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Damon Stoudamire	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0,-0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.03	15	63%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.14	0.03	14	71%	0.28	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.09,0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.17,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.09	0.04	22	63%	0.25	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	12	68%	0.14	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.06
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	19	54%	0.12	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	53%	0.07	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.5	29.8	17.7	29.6	3.6	37.4	146.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +34.8%

MEM -23.4%

SAC +24.6%

SAC +8.8%

SAC +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAC	NBA	MEM	SAC	NBA
this game	15.2	14.5	15.4	114.4	118.6	104.5
season	15.1	14.7		105.1	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.1		106.0	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.8	15.8	15.6	14.8	15.2
SAC	14.6	13.5	15.0	14.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	39	37	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.17	7	-11	18	16.9	14.1	2.79	13.2	15.2	-2.06
Lawrence Roberts	42	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-7	10	16.5	14.3	2.20	13.8	14.9	-1.04
Dahntay Jones	58	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-9	14	16.5	13.4	3.12	13.9	15.3	-1.40
Hakim Warrick	35	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	6	-16	14.3	15.7	-1.43	16.1	13.5	2.63
Chucky Atkins	50	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-2	0	13.7	16.8	-3.11	15.6	13.3	2.34
Rudy Gay	48	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	5	-14	14.7	15.7	-0.99	15.0	13.9	1.14
Damon Stoudamire	68	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-5	6	15.8	13.8	2.05	13.8	16.2	-2.46
Mike Miller	82	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	3	-10	14.3	20.2	-5.88	14.5	14.1	0.47
Stromile Swift	63	65	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	4	-12	14.8	16.0	-1.19	14.5	14.3	0.18

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	80	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.54	2	2	0	14.0	16.6	-2.65	15.6	13.3	2.34
Mike Bibby	86	85	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-2	8	14.6	13.4	1.24	15.0	16.8	-1.83
Kevin Martin	76	77	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-6	16	14.6	13.8	0.84	14.3	18.7	-4.38
Kenny Thomas	73	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	-3	10	14.8	13.4	1.39	14.1	18.7	-4.60
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	69	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-5	14	14.5	14.3	0.25	14.8	16.3	-1.50
Francisco Garcia	48	48	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	4	-4	14.6	14.3	0.28	15.4	15.0	0.42
Corliss Williamson	36	34	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	14	-24	13.7	14.9	-1.22	18.9	13.2	5.67
Ronnie Price	17	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	8	-12	14.6	14.4	0.15	16.9	14.8	2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.8,0.47,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 88, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.71,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.91,0.96,1	91.8%
MEM 100, OKC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.99,1	91.3%
SEA 89, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.84,0.85,1	91.0%