NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Excitement	3.0 [1141]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIN): +4.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	82		Comeback	1.0 [522]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -8.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	6	57%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	-0.00	-0.03	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	15	56%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.02	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	18	47%	-0.03	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	69%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	5	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	18	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	18	38%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.05
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	10	37%	-0.04	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.5	25.4	15.5	21.6	1.5	26.2	117.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +18.8%

MIN +7.9%

MIN +16.5%

MIN +1.3%

MIN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	17.6	14.8	15.6	108.9	93.2	102.3
season	15.0	15.3		106.7	104.7
opponent	16.0	16.1		105.1	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.8	16.5	19.0	18.1	17.6
MIL	15.2	14.8	14.6	14.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	68	69	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	-2	20	17.5	17.8	-0.29	15.3	12.9	2.33
Terrell Brandon	55	53	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.12	19	-3	22	17.1	18.3	-1.24	15.5	13.7	1.85
Rasho Nesterovic	47	45	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.13	19	-3	22	16.9	18.3	-1.47	15.4	14.1	1.33
Joe Smith	45	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	-2	20	18.2	16.9	1.33	15.5	14.0	1.48
Wally Szczerbiak	66	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	6	4	18.1	16.1	2.01	15.3	13.1	2.18
Anthony Peeler	54	52	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	8	0	17.2	18.0	-0.79	14.5	15.1	-0.57
Chauncey Billups	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	19	-22	17.8	17.4	0.42	13.4	15.7	-2.25
Loren Woods	38	37	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	20	-24	18.5	16.9	1.59	13.8	15.5	-1.71
Felipe Lopez	13	10	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	15	-14	16.7	17.7	-1.01	12.3	15.1	-2.79
Gary Trent	23	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	20	-24	17.5	17.6	-0.10	13.5	15.2	-1.70
Sam Mitchell	5	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	14.6	17.7	-3.13	10.2	15.0	-4.85

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	7.7	15.0	-7.36	19.0	17.5	1.49
Michael Redd	35	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.25	7	-23	30	13.1	15.9	-2.85	17.9	17.3	0.61
Rafer Alston	27	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-17	18	14.7	14.8	-0.10	20.6	16.4	4.27
Jason Caffey	41	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-12	8	14.0	15.5	-1.54	17.7	17.5	0.20
Mark Pope	23	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-15	14	15.2	14.6	0.54	16.6	17.9	-1.27
Ervin Johnson	38	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-10	4	14.2	15.2	-1.04	16.5	18.3	-1.86
Anthony Mason	52	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-6	-4	15.6	13.6	2.06	18.2	16.6	1.60
Ray Allen	65	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.07	-14	-2	-12	15.1	13.9	1.16	17.9	16.7	1.21
Tim Thomas	41	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	-1	-14	15.6	14.1	1.48	16.3	18.7	-2.49
Glenn Robinson	54	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.25	-22	6	-28	15.4	13.8	1.55	18.4	16.4	1.95
Sam Cassell	61	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.04	-17	1	-18	14.8	14.7	0.10	16.4	20.6	-4.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 114, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DAL 108, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
IND 103, CHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%