NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	90		Excitement	3.2 [1116]		MVP	Doug Christie (SAC): +4.8%
Miami Heat	75		Comeback	1.0 [573]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -16.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	11	74%	0.06	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.07	9	44%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	17	46%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	5	54%	0.02	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Lawrence Funderburke	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.05	5	64%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	7	35%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	14	56%	0.01	4	-0.07	11	100%	0.04
Mike Bibby	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.15	-0.01	-0.05	8	28%	-0.06	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.04	9	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tang Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	10	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.04
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.21	-0.02	-0.06	20	26%	-0.10	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	28.0	15.4	25.6	2.4	26.3	124.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +14.1%

SAC +16.1%

SAC +7.8%

SAC +10.7%

SAC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	15.9	15.6	102.3	84.3	102.3
season	14.2	16.5		106.6	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		98.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.4	15.0	16.4	18.4	16.7
MIA	17.7	14.3	14.9	16.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlade Divac	81	83	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.01	19	-4	23	16.7	16.1	0.60	16.4	8.2	8.24
Bobby Jackson	43	43	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	1	13	16.3	17.1	-0.76	15.4	16.3	-0.93
Doug Christie	68	69	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	6	3	17.2	15.0	2.19	16.2	14.7	1.49
Mike Bibby	64	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	6	3	16.6	16.9	-0.25	16.3	14.6	1.74
Scot Pollard	59	58	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	8	-1	16.4	17.2	-0.82	15.1	17.2	-2.11
Peja Stojakovic	67	68	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	12	-9	16.5	17.3	-0.84	15.4	17.5	-2.12
Hedo Turkoglu	28	28	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	7	1	17.0	16.5	0.50	15.4	16.1	-0.72
Lawrence Funderburke	30	31	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	9	-3	16.8	16.6	0.16	16.2	15.7	0.57

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	26	23	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.22	8	-23	31	15.7	15.9	-0.28	16.7	16.7	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	13.3	16.0	-2.70	21.8	16.4	5.41
Sam Mack	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-17	19	13.3	16.0	-2.70	18.2	16.6	1.58
Rod Strickland	22	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-12	9	13.1	16.8	-3.67	17.3	16.5	0.78
Sean Marks	35	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-11	7	15.1	16.4	-1.31	15.9	17.2	-1.30
Eddie Jones	67	67	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-13	11	15.7	16.5	-0.80	17.4	14.4	3.04
Tang Hamilton	48	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-11	7	15.8	16.0	-0.18	16.5	17.0	-0.48
Eddie House	19	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-7	-1	16.8	15.6	1.19	16.2	16.8	-0.64
LaPhonso Ellis	41	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	-4	-7	16.0	15.8	0.18	17.0	16.5	0.48
Alonzo Mourning	55	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.05	-15	0	-15	16.7	14.5	2.24	17.6	15.2	2.42
Brian Grant	56	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.15	-21	6	-27	15.9	15.8	0.06	16.2	17.7	-1.58
Anthony Carter	64	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.09	-19	4	-23	17.0	13.0	3.97	15.5	19.8	-4.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
SAS 87, SEA 73	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
GSW 103, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%