NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	2.6 [1211]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +6.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	73		Comeback	1.1 [530]		LVP	Ronald Murray (SEA): -19.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	18	63%	0.09	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	14	57%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Hart	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.03	3	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	11	36%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.04	2	33%	-0.02	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ansu Sesay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.06	7	65%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	9	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.28	-0.00	-0.08	26	27%	-0.15	4	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.2	3.5	30.2	15.8	25.3	2.7	29.3	141.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.4%

SAS +2.6%

SAS +9.1%

SEA -8.3%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	15.7	97.8	83.0	100.5
season	15.9	15.6		100.1	105.0
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.9	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.7	14.4	20.2	17.5	17.1
SEA	15.3	16.9	14.0	15.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	74	74	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.04	18	-4	22	17.5	15.5	1.93	15.4	15.4	0.05
Tony Parker	63	60	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.07	12	2	10	17.5	16.2	1.33	15.6	15.0	0.53
Manu Ginobili	66	65	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.06	16	-2	18	16.3	19.4	-3.04	15.8	14.2	1.60
Hedo Turkoglu	40	42	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	1	12	16.6	17.6	-0.93	15.8	15.0	0.83
Rasho Nesterovic	63	62	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.12	7	7	0	16.6	18.5	-1.93	15.1	16.0	-0.85
Bruce Bowen	69	67	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.27	-1	15	-16	18.1	13.6	4.49	14.8	17.2	-2.35
Robert Horry	24	25	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	6	2	17.5	17.0	0.50	15.8	15.3	0.51
Jason Hart	26	28	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	12	-10	16.2	17.5	-1.33	15.0	15.6	-0.53
Devin Brown	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	18.0	17.1	0.90	11.5	15.5	-3.99
Malik Rose	17	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.12	-5	19	-24	17.3	17.1	0.20	15.8	15.3	0.48

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richie Frahm	33	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.18	5	-19	24	15.0	15.6	-0.64	17.5	16.9	0.56
Jerome James	42	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-14	14	14.1	16.6	-2.45	18.4	15.9	2.48
Antonio Daniels	39	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-12	10	14.8	15.9	-1.08	18.8	15.7	3.14
Ansu Sesay	33	32	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-13	12	15.9	15.1	0.87	17.5	16.9	0.52
Rashard Lewis	43	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	-11	8	15.3	15.5	-0.23	17.8	16.4	1.44
Vitaly Potapenko	18	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.09	-9	-5	-4	16.1	15.2	0.90	14.3	17.9	-3.58
Reggie Evans	14	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-5	-4	17.8	14.9	2.84	11.9	18.1	-6.26
Calvin Booth	52	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.26	2	-16	18	15.2	15.7	-0.50	18.7	15.1	3.63
Luke Ridnour	49	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	-2	-10	15.9	14.8	1.08	15.7	18.8	-3.14
Ronald Murray	68	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	2	-18	15.0	16.7	-1.69	17.6	15.3	2.31
Vladimir Radmanovic	49	49	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.25	-25	11	-36	16.3	14.3	2.05	15.1	19.6	-4.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 107, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAL 103, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
GSW 126, NYK 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%