NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	109		Excitement	4.4 [925]		MVP	Danny Fortson (GSW): +5.5%
Washington Wizards	100		Comeback	1.6 [318]		LVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): -14.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Fortson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	73%	0.09	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	6	79%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	15	62%	0.10	4	-0.08	12	92%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	17	62%	0.10	4	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01
Cedric Henderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	83%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Bob Sura	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	-0.14	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	6	43%	-0.00	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	5	71%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	8	59%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	8	44%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	12	67%	-0.03
Michael Jordan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	30	47%	0.01	3	-0.09	8	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.7	30.1	15.4	23.6	2.3	29.5	128.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +40.1%

GSW +4.3%

GSW +24.9%

WAS -17.2%

WAS -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	WAS	NBA	GSW	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	14.5	15.6	106.9	99.0	102.3
season	14.7	16.5		100.7	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.1		103.9	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.8	13.8	14.2	15.9	13.8
WAS	14.4	13.9	15.2	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	75	73	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.05	20	-11	31	13.9	13.6	0.33	14.6	14.5	0.11
Antawn Jamison	77	78	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	-5	19	13.8	14.0	-0.22	14.2	15.9	-1.72
Larry Hughes	69	66	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	3	3	13.3	14.8	-1.50	14.2	15.3	-1.09
Erick Dampier	55	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	0	9	12.7	15.1	-2.44	14.2	14.9	-0.72
Chris Mills	46	45	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-2	13	14.4	13.4	1.06	14.4	14.7	-0.26
Jason Richardson	37	35	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.23	0	9	-9	13.5	14.0	-0.59	15.6	14.0	1.57
Adonal Foyle	29	30	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	5	-1	15.2	13.3	1.97	15.9	14.0	1.98
Mookie Blaylock	34	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	9	-9	15.3	13.1	2.15	15.1	14.2	0.92
Bob Sura	39	40	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	9	-9	13.6	14.0	-0.39	14.2	14.8	-0.57
Troy Murphy	37	37	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	14	-19	13.8	13.9	-0.08	13.9	14.9	-1.03
Cedric Henderson	6	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	16	-23	14.0	13.8	0.18	16.2	14.5	1.74
Marc Jackson	6	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	16	-23	14.0	13.8	0.18	16.2	14.5	1.74

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	12	12	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-13	17	12.7	14.8	-2.13	12.0	14.1	-2.08
Popeye Jones	24	25	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-19	29	13.3	14.9	-1.64	15.7	13.2	2.50
Tyrone Nesby	41	41	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.27	10	-19	29	13.8	15.0	-1.20	14.2	13.6	0.56
Chris Whitney	45	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-12	15	15.4	13.8	1.58	14.8	13.0	1.81
Etan Thomas	15	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-3	-3	16.5	14.2	2.34	13.9	13.8	0.05
Jahidi White	29	29	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	-1	-7	14.2	14.7	-0.43	12.6	14.3	-1.74
Kwame Brown	72	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.30	2	-11	13	14.7	14.2	0.43	14.3	12.6	1.70
Bobby Simmons	34	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-8	7	14.9	14.4	0.51	14.5	13.5	0.96
Courtney Alexander	42	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	2	-13	15.2	14.1	1.11	13.5	14.1	-0.61
Richard Hamilton	49	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.03	-14	5	-19	13.5	15.6	-2.09	12.8	14.9	-2.11
Christian Laettner	62	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	7	-23	14.5	14.5	0.01	13.1	15.0	-1.96
Michael Jordan	80	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	9	-27	14.9	13.3	1.59	13.9	13.4	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 103, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
MEM 80, DAL 64	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
ORL 105, BKN 82	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%