NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	5.3 [756]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +10.4%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	1.1 [1208]		LVP	Tariq Abdul-Wahad (DEN): -9.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.03	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	45%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	13	63%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	13	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Zendon Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	4	30%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	8	32%	-0.07	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.00	0.03	23	63%	0.14	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	9	59%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	0.02
Danny Manning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	68%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	16	51%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.03
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.8	30.2	16.4	27.4	2.4	26.6	133.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +23.5%

DAL +14.3%

DAL +19.0%

DEN -8.0%

DAL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	15.6	101.1	115.4	102.3
season	16.1	14.8		99.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	15.6	17.2	17.8	16.6
DAL	13.2	13.8	14.9	20.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	31	32	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.32	17	-31	48	14.5	17.7	-3.28	15.1	15.3	-0.26
Scott Williams	33	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-9	4	16.9	16.4	0.44	16.0	14.8	1.23
Isaiah Rider	53	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.30	8	-22	30	15.4	18.3	-2.93	15.5	14.9	0.62
Zendon Hamilton	34	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.13	-2	-12	10	16.1	16.9	-0.73	12.5	16.8	-4.21
Avery Johnson	57	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-12	10	15.9	17.8	-1.97	15.5	14.8	0.65
James Posey	41	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.19	-16	2	-18	17.7	15.7	2.03	15.1	15.3	-0.25
Raef LaFrentz	40	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	-1	-12	18.0	15.5	2.52	16.5	14.1	2.36
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	38	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.12	-18	4	-22	17.7	15.8	1.92	14.4	15.8	-1.39
Nick Van Exel	66	64	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.17	-23	9	-32	17.1	15.1	2.01	15.4	14.8	0.64
George McCloud	57	56	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.08	-16	2	-18	16.6	16.6	-0.06	15.4	14.9	0.56

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	72	71	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.04	20	-6	26	16.1	12.1	3.95	17.1	14.7	2.43
Dirk Nowitzki	78	77	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.09	15	-1	16	15.6	13.1	2.51	16.5	16.9	-0.38
Michael Finley	79	78	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.00	17	-3	20	15.2	15.6	-0.41	17.0	13.8	3.19
Danny Manning	66	64	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.03	15	-1	16	15.1	15.6	-0.51	16.8	16.2	0.57
Eduardo Najera	34	34	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	2	10	16.4	14.6	1.79	17.2	16.2	0.97
Tim Hardaway	34	33	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	16	-18	12.6	16.8	-4.27	15.3	17.4	-2.10
Juwan Howard	43	43	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	15	-16	13.7	16.6	-2.95	16.7	16.5	0.28
Donnell Harvey	17	17	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	13	-12	14.8	15.3	-0.50	16.1	16.7	-0.59
Shawn Bradley	32	33	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	21	-28	16.9	14.3	2.54	15.1	17.5	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 71, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
TOR 89, NOK 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.96,1	94.8%
CHI 90, WAS 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.91,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%