NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	4.8 [869]		MVP	John Salmons (CHI): +23.1%
Washington Wizards	113		Comeback	1.1 [445]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -13.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.18	0.06	0.01	13	74%	0.23	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	5	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	90%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Anthony Roberson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	14	32%	-0.05	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Luol Deng	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	10	40%	-0.03	5	-0.10	5	40%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.02	-0.01	18	61%	0.17	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	13	47%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	-0.00	-0.03	11	56%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	48%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	77%	0.09	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Javaris Crittenton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.4	33.5	15.4	26.7	2.8	28.4	136.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +34.8%

WAS +4.7%

WAS +9.3%

WAS +1.2%

WAS +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	16.6	15.5	98.9	125.6	106.4
season	14.8	15.9		106.3	103.5
opponent	15.2	15.7		111.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.4	13.0	17.5	14.3	15.2
WAS	15.5	16.3	16.0	18.7	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	7	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-19	15	12.4	15.5	-3.05	19.5	16.4	3.12
Anthony Roberson	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-20	17	11.8	15.5	-3.65	19.8	16.4	3.40
Lindsey Hunter	9	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.18	-6	-17	11	14.2	15.4	-1.13	20.1	16.3	3.85
Tim Thomas	22	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-25	27	15.5	15.1	0.40	16.2	16.7	-0.50
Brad Miller	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	-21	19	14.9	15.6	-0.75	15.3	18.0	-2.61
Tyrus Thomas	39	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.29	-18	-5	-13	15.3	15.2	0.12	17.4	16.0	1.34
Kirk Hinrich	29	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-19	15	17.3	14.3	3.04	14.7	17.4	-2.67
John Salmons	59	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-16	9	14.8	16.1	-1.36	16.2	17.3	-1.12
Ben Gordon	57	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-11	-1	14.9	15.7	-0.79	16.9	15.9	1.03
Joakim Noah	57	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.21	-19	-4	-15	15.2	15.2	0.01	17.5	15.2	2.27
Luol Deng	59	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.19	-20	-3	-17	15.8	14.2	1.67	16.6	16.6	0.05
Derrick Rose	65	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.16	-22	-1	-21	15.4	15.0	0.39	16.3	17.3	-0.96

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dominic McGuire	74	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.16	26	-3	29	16.7	15.9	0.87	15.4	14.7	0.65
Antawn Jamison	54	56	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.20	24	-1	25	16.5	16.7	-0.13	16.0	14.0	1.97
Mike James	66	67	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.21	24	-1	25	16.5	16.8	-0.28	15.6	14.2	1.46
Caron Butler	64	67	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.04	18	5	13	16.6	16.5	0.18	16.5	11.6	4.91
Andray Blatche	45	43	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.02	10	13	-3	16.0	17.2	-1.18	15.5	15.0	0.42
Darius Songaila	41	41	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.08	11	12	-1	16.0	17.1	-1.13	16.0	14.6	1.47
Oleksiy Pecherov	12	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	20	-17	17.8	16.4	1.44	12.0	15.8	-3.78
Javaris Crittenton	24	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	24	-25	16.8	16.5	0.28	14.2	15.6	-1.46
JaVale McGee	19	20	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.07	0	23	-23	18.0	16.2	1.79	12.5	16.0	-3.51
Nick Young	51	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	23	-23	16.5	16.6	-0.09	13.6	17.3	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.91,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 90, ORL 103	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
NYK 88, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
ATL 71, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%