NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	7.3 [374]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +23.8%
Charlotte Hornets	95		Comeback	3.5 [370]		LVP	Elden Campbell (CHH): -28.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.14	0.02	16	65%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21	0.06	0.17	0.01	23	60%	0.26	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.04
Terry Porter	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.01	7	79%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	7	58%	-0.05	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
David Robinson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	4	61%	-0.02	2	-0.10	10	50%	-0.06

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	16	56%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	86%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.07	0.00	11	35%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	20	44%	-0.07	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Elden Campbell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	8	20%	-0.23	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.8	31.5	15.7	23.7	2.6	28.3	125.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +65.2%

CHH -9.1%

CHH -2.4%

CHH -1.3%

CHH -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHH	NBA	SAS	CHH	NBA
this game	15.6	16.1	15.6	114.1	105.6	102.3
season	15.8	15.9		104.3	102.2
opponent	15.6	15.7		101.1	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	15.0	15.3	15.9	15.6
CHH	16.0	16.3	14.7	17.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	64	63	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.21	17	-7	24	15.4	15.9	-0.44	16.9	14.3	2.63
Tim Duncan	87	84	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-5	20	15.6	14.8	0.80	16.1	16.5	-0.43
Terry Porter	42	42	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	3	4	14.9	16.1	-1.24	15.9	16.3	-0.46
Malik Rose	44	42	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	1	8	15.3	15.8	-0.54	15.1	17.0	-1.88
Antonio Daniels	34	32	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	9	-8	15.1	15.8	-0.79	16.9	15.6	1.30
Tony Parker	74	72	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	1	8	15.6	15.2	0.48	15.2	19.9	-4.74
Steven Smith	42	41	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	6	-2	16.6	14.7	1.92	17.0	15.4	1.61
David Robinson	47	48	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	12	-14	15.7	15.4	0.30	17.2	14.9	2.29
Cherokee Parks	1	2	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	12	-14	6.0	15.7	-9.66	5.0	16.4	-11.35
Danny Ferry	25	24	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.03	-8	18	-26	16.1	15.3	0.78	15.3	16.4	-1.05

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Traylor	26	26	0.47	-0.97	1.43	-0.12	20	-30	50	14.2	16.9	-2.63	15.5	15.6	-0.02
Lee Nailon	34	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-17	24	16.1	16.1	0.03	15.8	15.4	0.46
Bryce Drew	16	17	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-15	20	17.7	15.8	1.93	16.5	15.3	1.20
Jamaal Magloire	36	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-9	8	16.6	15.7	0.90	15.7	15.5	0.26
Jamal Mashburn	83	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	2	-14	16.2	15.0	1.19	15.4	17.5	-2.13
P.J. Brown	67	68	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	4	-18	15.7	17.3	-1.62	15.6	15.5	0.07
Baron Davis	74	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	5	-20	15.8	17.7	-1.93	15.3	16.5	-1.20
Elden Campbell	41	44	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.21	-16	6	-22	17.1	15.3	1.83	15.7	15.4	0.33
David Wesley	73	75	-0.86	0.36	-1.21	-0.15	-24	14	-38	16.2	15.6	0.56	15.4	16.1	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.64,0.22,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, POR 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.59,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.16,0	90.9%
OKC 120, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.3,0.42,0.39,0.55,0.48,0.31,0.37,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.09,0.01,0	90.8%
MIL 90, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.28,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.22,0.28,0	90.8%