NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	2.4 [1205]		MVP	Mike Miller (ORL): +10.9%
Miami Heat	73		Comeback	1.4 [300]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -11.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	13	75%	0.11	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Pat Garrity	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.00	-0.07	6	58%	0.07	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.10	8	35%	0.04	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	20	57%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	0.00	0.07	11	65%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	4	25%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.17	0.00	-0.08	9	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	12	58%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	9	80%	0.08	2	-0.02	7	86%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.00	2	0.00	2	100%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	17	41%	-0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	7	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.17	-0.00	-0.07	6	33%	-0.02	5	-0.08	6	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	11	27%	-0.05	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	27.4	17.4	26.0	1.6	29.4	132.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.5%

MIA -1.3%

MIA -4.4%

ORL +17.8%

MIA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.5	97.8	80.2	100.9
season	14.6	16.3		101.6	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.8		96.9	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.3	14.9	14.0	17.3	15.4
MIA	17.5	17.1	16.7	13.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.23	26	-9	35	14.4	18.2	-3.80	17.2	13.0	4.12
Bo Outlaw	69	67	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.21	24	-7	31	14.7	17.3	-2.65	17.1	13.4	3.73
Dee Brown	43	43	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	15	-13	16.2	14.6	1.64	15.5	16.7	-1.16
Pat Garrity	40	38	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.08	6	11	-5	16.8	14.2	2.64	15.6	16.5	-0.93
Troy Hudson	69	68	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	9	-1	15.6	14.8	0.77	15.4	18.1	-2.69
John Amaechi	43	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	15	-13	16.6	14.2	2.38	15.8	16.4	-0.67
Tracy McGrady	52	51	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.17	13	4	9	14.9	15.9	-1.05	16.6	15.5	1.11
Don Reid	23	23	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	10	-3	14.3	15.7	-1.35	16.7	15.9	0.77
Andrew DeClercq	29	29	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	11	-5	14.1	15.9	-1.83	16.4	16.0	0.43
Monty Williams	24	25	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.27	-9	26	-35	16.7	14.9	1.77	13.1	17.3	-4.14

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Causwell	13	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-21	25	12.3	16.8	-4.45	20.5	14.6	5.91
A.C. Green	28	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.27	9	-26	35	13.7	17.2	-3.48	17.0	14.7	2.38
Ricky Davis	32	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.22	7	-24	31	13.6	17.5	-3.85	16.8	14.6	2.18
Alonzo Mourning	36	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-8	-1	18.1	14.9	3.20	15.9	15.0	0.94
Bruce Bowen	53	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	-10	3	15.3	17.3	-1.96	15.8	14.7	1.12
Anthony Carter	31	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	-5	-7	17.3	15.5	1.82	15.6	15.2	0.38
Dan Majerle	37	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	-3	-11	16.1	16.1	-0.07	14.9	15.7	-0.75
Eddie Jones	46	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	-6	-5	17.4	14.8	2.66	13.7	17.1	-3.41
Anthony Mason	57	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.17	-17	0	-17	16.5	15.4	1.09	14.5	16.9	-2.32
Eddie House	66	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-3	-11	16.2	15.8	0.39	15.3	15.5	-0.25
Brian Grant	56	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.13	-21	4	-25	16.9	14.9	2.05	14.3	17.0	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, MEM 80	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
LAC 98, SEA 76	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
MIL 112, SAC 87	0.5,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%