NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	4.1 [970]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +8.0%
Denver Nuggets	80		Comeback	1.6 [1026]		LVP	Kevin Willis (DEN): -14.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	16	71%	0.15	3	-0.07	19	84%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	13	57%	0.08	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	4	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	14	59%	0.03	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Dan McClintock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	13	43%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	8	61%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	17	33%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	0.00	10	20%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	24.5	16.3	23.5	2.3	26.6	119.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.0%

SAS +12.3%

SAS +0.3%

SAS +4.9%

SAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	15.5	107.4	84.2	100.9
season	15.9	15.2		103.4	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.1	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.5	14.9	16.1	17.0	15.6
DEN	13.2	15.7	14.6	16.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Anderson	79	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	9	3	16.1	12.7	3.37	14.7	16.1	-1.45
Tim Duncan	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.07	14	7	7	15.7	14.9	0.77	14.9	14.8	0.08
Avery Johnson	39	38	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.13	16	5	11	17.3	14.3	2.94	14.9	14.9	-0.08
Sean Elliott	46	47	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.11	14	7	7	16.3	14.9	1.45	14.4	15.4	-0.93
Terry Porter	51	53	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	13	-5	14.3	17.0	-2.69	15.0	14.9	0.11
Malik Rose	36	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	8	5	17.7	14.3	3.41	15.5	14.6	0.90
Samaki Walker	31	31	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	9	3	15.2	15.7	-0.55	14.4	15.2	-0.74
Antonio Daniels	32	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.17	11	10	1	13.9	16.4	-2.51	16.7	14.0	2.77
David Robinson	40	42	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	19	-17	14.6	16.3	-1.68	14.9	14.9	-0.06
Danny Ferry	27	28	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	22	-23	15.7	15.5	0.14	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Shawnelle Scott	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	20	-19	9.3	16.0	-6.66	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Steve Kerr	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	11.7	15.9	-4.17	16.4	14.8	1.59

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	52	53	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.02	7	-28	35	15.0	14.8	0.23	16.5	14.3	2.25
Anthony Goldwire	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-20	19	16.4	14.8	1.59	11.7	15.9	-4.17
Raef LaFrentz	58	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-16	11	14.0	16.4	-2.40	15.9	15.0	0.91
James Posey	74	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-17	13	14.6	15.9	-1.21	15.0	17.3	-2.29
Dan McClintock	15	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	-12	3	14.6	15.0	-0.38	13.9	15.8	-1.92
Ryan Bowen	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-11	1	16.9	14.2	2.72	15.3	15.6	-0.30
Robert Pack	81	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.13	-16	-5	-11	14.7	16.4	-1.77	15.5	15.9	-0.44
George McCloud	66	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	-7	-7	13.5	18.0	-4.49	15.9	14.7	1.21
Nick Van Exel	49	50	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.15	-24	3	-27	16.6	13.2	3.38	16.6	14.4	2.13
Kevin Willis	47	45	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	0.06	-29	8	-37	15.8	14.0	1.81	14.6	16.4	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 125, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
DEN 111, BKN 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
CLE 115, OKC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.21,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%