NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	6.2 [541]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +14.1%
Washington Wizards	84		Comeback	1.4 [1035]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (WAS): -22.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.01	11	68%	0.19	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	-0.00	11	73%	0.17	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.02	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.02	0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	12	62%	0.19	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Cedric Ceballos	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	9	33%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	64%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	58%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
David Vanterpool	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	4	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.02
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	11	42%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Laron Profit	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	12	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.16	-0.16	0.01	-0.18	-0.02	21	53%	-0.13	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.06
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.24	-0.05	-0.07	21	33%	-0.08	5	-0.14	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	27.2	15.3	21.6	2.5	32.7	126.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +93.8%

WAS -21.3%

WAS -5.0%

WAS -13.1%

WAS -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	14.5	17.3	15.5	94.5	93.3	100.9
season	16.3	15.2		98.4	98.6
opponent	15.2	16.1		105.5	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.2	14.6	16.9	14.9	14.5
WAS	16.6	17.5	17.4	17.8	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	53	54	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	-3	8	14.8	14.2	0.52	16.5	18.6	-2.09
Alonzo Mourning	44	44	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-9	20	14.4	14.7	-0.34	16.7	17.9	-1.25
Anthony Mason	67	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	15.6	11.6	4.01	17.1	17.8	-0.67
Tim Hardaway	57	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	0	2	15.6	12.8	2.74	17.2	17.5	-0.30
Bruce Bowen	71	71	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.40	-3	5	-8	15.2	12.3	2.87	17.8	15.3	2.52
Eddie House	12	10	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	-4	10	11.2	15.0	-3.79	15.1	17.6	-2.48
Brian Grant	50	50	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.36	-8	10	-18	14.8	14.2	0.67	17.3	17.3	-0.09
Anthony Carter	41	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	1	0	13.0	15.8	-2.89	18.1	16.6	1.46
Cedric Ceballos	32	31	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	6	-10	14.2	14.7	-0.49	18.3	16.8	1.46
A.C. Green	28	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	3	-4	11.7	15.8	-4.03	17.9	17.0	0.81

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	46	48	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.31	12	-14	26	17.3	17.3	-0.04	15.6	13.4	2.21
Jahidi White	50	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.28	8	-10	18	17.4	17.1	0.32	15.3	13.5	1.75
Laron Profit	69	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-3	4	18.1	14.6	3.50	14.9	13.5	1.31
David Vanterpool	39	40	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	3	-8	16.3	18.1	-1.84	13.0	15.8	-2.79
Richard Hamilton	78	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-2	2	16.9	19.7	-2.83	14.8	12.7	2.06
Michael Smith	49	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	6	-14	17.4	17.2	0.24	13.5	15.7	-2.11
Popeye Jones	35	34	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.04	-16	14	-30	17.0	17.5	-0.54	13.3	15.3	-1.94
Courtney Alexander	84	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	0	-2	17.5	15.0	2.46	14.8	11.3	3.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.48,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 114, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.32,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
MIL 96, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
DEN 108, TOR 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%