NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	6.1 [559]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (ATL): +15.1%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	1.5 [842]		LVP	Ryan Bowen (DEN): -13.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	16	64%	0.17	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	18	51%	0.07	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.03
Calbert Cheaney	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	15	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	36%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	14	40%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	8	30%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	15	72%	0.23	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	10	46%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	12	59%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	13	38%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	45%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	23.2	15.4	22.4	1.7	27.3	115.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +44.2%

DEN -4.3%

ATL +9.0%

ATL +0.6%

ATL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.6	15.5	91.7	104.2	100.9
season	15.2	15.4		101.4	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.2		101.6	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	16.3	16.6	14.6	15.6
ATL	12.1	15.0	15.4	16.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	30	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-10	9	16.0	15.3	0.68	14.9	14.5	0.43
Antonio McDyess	65	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	-8	5	15.6	15.4	0.21	14.0	15.7	-1.61
Calbert Cheaney	41	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-5	-1	16.5	14.9	1.62	13.8	15.2	-1.48
James Posey	73	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-6	1	15.3	16.4	-1.15	14.2	15.9	-1.72
Kevin Willis	60	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-6	1	15.3	16.0	-0.74	14.6	14.6	-0.06
Robert Pack	56	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-2	-7	14.8	16.6	-1.82	14.7	14.4	0.39
Nick Van Exel	85	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	0	-11	15.6	15.5	0.02	14.9	12.1	2.83
Raef LaFrentz	70	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.10	-15	4	-19	15.9	14.7	1.19	15.4	12.5	2.88

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	79	82	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.12	16	-5	21	14.7	13.9	0.86	15.7	14.8	0.91
Dion Glover	41	43	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-5	21	15.1	14.2	0.94	15.1	15.9	-0.85
Matt Maloney	58	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-3	17	15.3	13.4	1.94	15.6	15.5	0.04
Nazr Mohammed	61	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.09	21	-10	31	14.3	15.1	-0.87	15.5	15.7	-0.16
Cal Bowdler	31	31	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	3	5	15.4	14.2	1.14	17.6	14.6	3.08
Alan Henderson	30	30	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	3	5	14.2	14.8	-0.62	16.4	15.2	1.17
Jason Terry	64	65	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	8	-5	14.2	15.4	-1.14	14.6	17.6	-3.08
Lorenzen Wright	34	33	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.27	-10	21	-31	15.1	14.3	0.87	15.7	15.5	0.16
Brevin Knight	37	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	14	-17	13.4	15.3	-1.94	15.5	15.6	-0.04
DerMarr Johnson	16	14	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	16	-21	13.9	14.7	-0.86	14.8	15.7	-0.91
Hanno Mottola	24	23	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.14	-13	24	-37	14.2	14.7	-0.51	15.4	15.6	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 71, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1	94.0%
TOR 89, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.74,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1	93.8%
HOU 91, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1	93.8%