NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	6.3 [534]		MVP	Lucious Harris (NJN): +6.5%
New Jersey Nets	99		Comeback	2.9 [429]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): -40.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	14	52%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	55%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	11	50%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	25	38%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.02	6	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.4	-0.06	-0.34	0.00	14	56%	-0.29	5	-0.12	4	50%	-0.38

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	16	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	13	65%	0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.03	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	25	48%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	-0.16	0.02	-0.01	15	32%	-0.08	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	23.8	14.8	23.2	1.7	33.3	120.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +16.7%

NJN +26.1%

NJN +8.2%

DEN -0.1%

DEN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NJN	NBA	DEN	NJN	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	15.5	100.0	103.1	100.9
season	15.2	15.5		101.4	97.8
opponent	15.1	15.2		103.0	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	16.1	14.3	11.3	14.0
NJN	16.0	14.6	16.2	17.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Pack	84	82	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.49	11	-14	25	13.4	18.2	-4.74	15.9	16.4	-0.53
Anthony Goldwire	10	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	5	-13	18.8	13.5	5.33	16.8	15.9	0.95
Kevin Willis	45	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	3	-9	15.3	12.9	2.43	16.4	15.6	0.79
Ryan Bowen	34	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-1	-1	13.5	14.3	-0.85	15.8	16.1	-0.33
Calbert Cheaney	43	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	5	-13	15.1	13.1	1.98	15.9	16.0	-0.13
James Posey	63	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-3	3	14.1	13.9	0.22	15.7	16.4	-0.68
Antonio McDyess	85	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.41	2	-5	7	13.9	15.3	-1.41	15.7	17.8	-2.12
Voshon Lenard	54	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	13.4	14.8	-1.32	16.4	15.5	0.93
Raef LaFrentz	62	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	13.3	15.3	-2.02	16.0	15.9	0.15

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucious Harris	83	83	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	16.1	15.5	0.60	14.1	13.6	0.47
Keith Van Horn	89	89	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.44	3	0	3	16.2	12.7	3.52	14.1	13.4	0.64
Evan Eschmeyer	59	56	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.03	15	-12	27	15.1	17.3	-2.19	15.0	12.7	2.31
Doug Overton	81	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	-1	5	15.9	16.2	-0.26	13.9	14.4	-0.42
Mark Strickland	28	27	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	-6	15	16.5	15.8	0.74	14.1	14.0	0.18
Aaron Williams	49	52	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.32	-8	11	-19	16.3	15.6	0.75	13.3	14.8	-1.47
Johnny Newman	79	80	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.47	-14	17	-31	16.1	15.4	0.76	13.4	17.2	-3.87
Stephen Jackson	12	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	2	-1	14.3	16.2	-1.88	16.0	13.7	2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 86, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
SAS 90, NOP 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
LAC 86, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.42,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%