NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	4.3 [594]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +7.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	3.0 [295]		LVP	Ervin Johnson (MIL): -9.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	10	41%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	21	54%	0.04	3	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Reggie Slater	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
John Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	7	44%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
John Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.03	9	33%	-0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	11	68%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	8	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	8	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	6	72%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	15	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	12	46%	0.06	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Paul Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	3	12%	-0.04	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.8	25.9	15.0	23.2	2.4	28.3	123.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.9%

MIL +14.3%

MIL +10.2%

MIL +2.9%

MIL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	14.7	15.1	15.8	88.7	103.1	99.6
season	15.6	15.8		99.0	102.4
opponent	16.4	15.9		100.9	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	11.9	16.0	15.8	15.8	14.7
MIL	13.9	14.0	17.7	15.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	9	9	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-14	15	16.7	14.5	2.16	13.6	15.3	-1.74
John Thomas	47	47	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.13	6	-19	25	14.4	15.0	-0.68	16.1	14.2	1.90
Reggie Slater	23	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-13	13	15.8	14.4	1.40	15.5	15.0	0.51
John Wallace	38	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-8	3	14.5	14.9	-0.39	15.8	14.7	1.08
Kevin Willis	39	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.13	-15	2	-17	14.0	15.2	-1.23	12.8	16.7	-3.86
Michael Stewart	16	13	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-4	-5	12.6	15.1	-2.57	15.6	15.1	0.56
Tracy McGrady	46	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-1	-11	14.0	15.4	-1.44	14.4	15.8	-1.35
Doug Christie	65	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-6	-1	14.6	14.8	-0.20	15.0	15.3	-0.29
Dee Brown	64	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-2	-9	14.6	14.9	-0.35	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Vince Carter	75	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	-3	-7	15.0	13.6	1.39	16.1	12.0	4.18

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	62	63	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.03	23	-10	33	15.9	13.8	2.12	16.2	11.9	4.36
Sam Cassell	49	50	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.19	24	-11	35	13.2	17.1	-3.94	14.6	14.9	-0.27
Armen Gilliam	57	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-1	15	16.1	13.7	2.39	15.2	14.1	1.10
Ray Allen	68	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	1	11	15.6	13.9	1.70	15.1	13.7	1.45
Robert Traylor	58	58	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	11	-9	16.6	12.9	3.62	15.4	13.6	1.83
Ervin Johnson	33	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.12	8	5	3	12.6	16.5	-3.90	13.2	15.5	-2.32
Haywoode Workman	59	60	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.29	-6	19	-25	15.9	13.8	2.11	14.2	15.6	-1.43
Scott Williams	23	23	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	13	-13	15.5	15.0	0.51	15.8	14.4	1.40
Chris Gatling	8	8	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.03	2	11	-9	9.4	15.7	-6.28	8.1	15.3	-7.18
Paul Grant	8	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	16	-19	12.9	15.3	-2.47	15.0	14.7	0.31
Michael Curry	55	54	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.18	-11	24	-35	14.5	15.9	-1.38	13.3	16.5	-3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, NOP 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MEM 86, LAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
WAS 103, CHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,1,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.5%