NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	5.9 [605]		MVP	Matt Bullard (HOU): +37.8%
Houston Rockets	103		Comeback	12.3 [48]		LVP	Antonio Daniels (SAS): -7.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	12	73%	0.14	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	9	64%	0.11	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Danny Ferry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0	-0.08	0.05	-0.02	28	42%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Derek Anderson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	10	54%	0.04	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.21	0.15	-0.02	8	112%	0.38	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.15	-0.01	23	52%	0.23	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.06	-0.00	20	58%	0.14	3	-0.08	12	83%	0.05
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.00	8	41%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	62%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Maurice Taylor	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	13	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	27.3	16.4	29.1	1.7	32.4	133.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +31.7%

HOU +7.7%

HOU +15.3%

SAS -3.3%

SAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	16.6	15.5	107.6	114.4	100.9
season	15.9	16.3		103.4	104.6
opponent	14.9	15.5		102.1	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.8	14.8	14.4	17.5	15.0
HOU	15.6	19.5	14.4	17.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	8	8	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	15.9	15.0	0.91	17.2	16.6	0.69
Samaki Walker	18	17	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-7	10	15.7	14.9	0.84	17.5	16.4	1.12
Steve Kerr	4	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-6	8	10.7	15.2	-4.49	22.0	16.4	5.56
Terry Porter	52	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-7	10	14.1	16.2	-2.09	17.0	16.2	0.76
Derek Anderson	56	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-5	6	15.1	14.9	0.21	17.3	15.5	1.80
Danny Ferry	47	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	5	-14	14.6	15.5	-0.92	14.1	19.1	-5.00
Avery Johnson	45	45	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	0	-4	16.2	13.9	2.35	16.4	16.8	-0.44
David Robinson	79	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	2	-8	14.8	16.8	-2.01	16.8	15.7	1.01
Antonio Daniels	64	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	1	-6	15.4	14.3	1.04	17.4	14.9	2.48
Tim Duncan	87	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.41	-5	1	-6	15.2	13.0	2.16	16.3	21.8	-5.48

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	57	59	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.30	20	-16	36	15.4	18.8	-3.37	15.7	13.8	1.91
Cuttino Mobley	85	87	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-3	10	16.4	19.8	-3.36	14.9	18.2	-3.34
Matt Bullard	32	32	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.06	21	-17	38	14.3	17.9	-3.54	15.6	14.7	0.89
Steve Francis	78	80	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.29	9	-5	14	16.6	16.7	-0.05	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Moochie Norris	39	40	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	5	-6	18.0	15.5	2.48	16.4	14.0	2.36
Kenny Thomas	39	39	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	1	2	17.5	16.0	1.48	16.6	13.9	2.64
Maurice Taylor	58	61	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	8	-12	16.2	17.3	-1.07	14.0	17.0	-2.95
Carlos Rogers	26	25	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	15	-26	18.9	15.7	3.24	13.5	15.6	-2.15
Shandon Anderson	39	40	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	0.09	-19	23	-42	17.5	15.9	1.57	13.8	16.0	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 92, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.62,0.68,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%
PHI 95, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,1,0.99,1	92.3%
MIL 92, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.32,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.43,0.63,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.93,1,0.99,1	92.2%