NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	70		Excitement	3.8 [1021]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +5.7%
Miami Heat	75		Comeback	1.7 [981]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -15.5%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	14	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Soumaila Samake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	10	32%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	0.03	12	37%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	12	36%	-0.11	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.02	-0.05	13	53%	0.06	2	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.08	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	42%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	18	49%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	5	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.22	-0.01	-0.08	13	14%	-0.14	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.6	29.2	15.7	25.6	1.8	32.5	130.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.5%

MIA +5.4%

MIA +12.1%

MIA +11.6%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	18.3	15.5	85.4	91.5	100.9
season	15.5	16.3		97.8	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.1		96.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.6	18.5	18.3	15.4	16.8
MIA	19.6	15.9	21.7	16.6	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Soumaila Samake	18	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.18	5	-10	15	16.9	16.8	0.13	20.0	17.8	2.17
Stephen Jackson	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-7	9	20.5	15.9	4.58	17.6	18.4	-0.81
Evan Eschmeyer	25	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-1	-3	18.1	16.3	1.84	22.6	16.2	6.43
Johnny Newman	51	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.43	8	-13	21	15.8	18.5	-2.74	16.0	21.6	-5.62
Sherman Douglas	34	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-3	1	17.7	16.2	1.48	17.8	18.6	-0.88
Aaron Williams	57	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-4	3	16.3	18.1	-1.84	16.2	22.6	-6.43
Lucious Harris	48	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	2	-9	16.1	17.9	-1.78	19.0	17.2	1.74
Stephon Marbury	55	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-2	-1	16.4	17.7	-1.29	18.8	17.2	1.54
Kenyon Martin	51	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	10	-25	16.9	16.7	0.21	19.7	15.9	3.82
Keith Van Horn	54	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	3	-11	17.1	16.3	0.79	17.8	19.3	-1.45

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	66	64	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-8	21	18.1	19.2	-1.13	16.6	17.7	-1.06
Anthony Mason	69	69	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	-2	9	18.4	17.8	0.52	17.1	15.7	1.37
Brian Grant	63	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	3	-1	18.8	16.7	2.08	16.2	19.1	-2.88
Bruce Bowen	53	54	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	-2	9	19.0	17.0	1.98	16.4	17.6	-1.16
Eddie Jones	66	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	7	-9	18.5	17.2	1.28	15.9	20.7	-4.78
Dan Majerle	35	34	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	5	-5	17.8	18.7	-0.89	18.5	15.7	2.83
A.C. Green	32	32	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	4	-3	17.2	19.0	-1.84	17.7	16.3	1.39
Anthony Carter	26	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	8	-11	17.5	18.7	-1.20	18.3	16.1	2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 81, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	96.1%
OKC 96, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
DEN 77, VAN 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1	95.8%