NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	116		Excitement	3.9 [995]		MVP	Michael Dickerson (VAN): +8.5%
Washington Wizards	104		Comeback	1.6 [389]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): -13.0%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Dickerson	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	13	74%	0.12	3	-0.04	5	40%	-0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	6	83%	0.08	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	0.01	0.08	9	86%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	89%	0.10	3	-0.05	6	67%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.02	-0.06	12	42%	0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	9	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.14	0.01	-0.07	13	50%	-0.00	5	-0.05	12	75%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.14	0.01	0.10	15	80%	0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	20	59%	0.08	3	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	5	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.18	-0.02	-0.09	14	41%	-0.00	6	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	11	27%	-0.11	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	29.5	15.4	21.6	2.5	40.2	133.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +39.9%

WAS -7.6%

VAN +13.5%

VAN +2.4%

VAN +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	WAS	NBA	VAN	WAS	NBA
this game	13.4	14.2	15.5	111.5	100.0	100.9
season	15.6	15.2		97.4	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.1		105.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	13.7	14.3	14.2	12.0	13.4
WAS	15.6	16.3	13.5	12.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	86	86	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.18	9	3	6	12.9	15.8	-2.89	14.3	13.9	0.44
Mike Bibby	88	87	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	4	4	13.2	14.6	-1.40	14.5	13.0	1.49
Erick Strickland	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	2	8	14.5	12.6	1.92	14.2	14.3	-0.04
Bryant Reeves	69	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	3	6	13.5	13.4	0.11	14.5	13.7	0.81
Stromile Swift	34	35	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	6	0	15.1	12.7	2.40	15.3	13.7	1.60
Grant Long	61	62	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	3	6	12.6	14.6	-1.94	13.9	14.8	-0.90
Tony Massenburg	26	26	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	7	-2	15.1	12.9	2.18	14.5	14.2	0.33
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	46	44	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	12	-12	13.2	13.6	-0.44	12.9	15.2	-2.36
Michael Dickerson	65	66	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	8	-4	13.0	14.1	-1.10	14.2	14.4	-0.27

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felipe Lopez	10	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-10	8	17.2	13.9	3.26	12.1	13.6	-1.49
Popeye Jones	37	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-16	20	13.0	14.9	-1.94	15.9	12.2	3.70
Gerard King	4	4	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-11	10	18.2	14.1	4.16	9.7	13.6	-3.84
Michael Smith	46	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-9	6	12.6	15.6	-3.02	12.9	13.9	-1.09
Tyrone Nesby	64	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-10	8	13.1	16.0	-2.92	13.0	14.3	-1.29
Richard Hamilton	82	82	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-3	-6	14.0	15.4	-1.41	13.1	14.6	-1.51
Jahidi White	41	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.06	-14	2	-16	17.0	12.4	4.58	13.1	13.6	-0.54
Mitch Richmond	61	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-1	-10	14.5	13.9	0.66	14.9	11.4	3.52
Juwan Howard	84	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	14.4	13.7	0.62	13.0	15.2	-2.24
Chris Whitney	91	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	14.6	11.6	3.01	13.3	14.4	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 89, BOS 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	96.0%
SEA 103, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
DET 104, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.8%