NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	98		Excitement	7.0 [394]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +24.6%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	3.8 [585]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -16.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	2	87%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	17	61%	0.10	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.06
Felipe Lopez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	12	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Popeye Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	0.00	-0.03	18	40%	-0.06	4	-0.06	6	50%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	9	52%	-0.05	3	-0.10	11	91%	0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.09	0.02	15	91%	0.41	5	-0.16	5	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.02	10	73%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	4	86%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	21%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.07	0.03	20	52%	-0.04	5	-0.12	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.0	30.7	16.6	27.6	2.6	30.4	135.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +42.7%

WAS -17.8%

ORL +18.9%

ORL +5.6%

ORL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.8	15.5	101.0	109.2	100.9
season	15.2	14.6		98.6	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		100.8	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.1	14.0	14.4	15.7	14.8
ORL	13.7	14.8	15.0	15.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	27	27	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-13	17	13.9	15.1	-1.19	15.1	14.6	0.54
Michael Smith	36	36	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.14	5	-14	19	14.9	14.7	0.26	14.8	14.7	0.04
Jahidi White	32	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-6	3	13.2	15.6	-2.43	14.2	15.0	-0.77
Tyrone Nesby	46	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-14	19	14.4	15.1	-0.75	15.5	14.0	1.52
Felipe Lopez	11	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-4	-1	14.4	14.8	-0.47	13.6	14.9	-1.32
Mitch Richmond	60	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-8	7	14.0	16.1	-2.10	14.9	14.5	0.46
Richard Hamilton	70	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-3	-3	15.0	14.3	0.68	14.4	15.8	-1.41
Calvin Booth	39	41	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	5	-19	17.7	12.8	4.91	15.1	14.5	0.55
Chris Whitney	80	80	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.12	-15	6	-21	15.0	13.9	1.09	14.8	14.4	0.38
Juwan Howard	84	85	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	6	-21	14.7	15.0	-0.25	14.5	16.5	-2.06

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	75	75	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.07	23	-14	37	14.5	15.5	-0.94	15.5	12.5	2.95
Mike Miller	63	63	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.11	19	-10	29	14.2	15.8	-1.58	14.3	15.6	-1.33
Tracy McGrady	76	76	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.05	20	-11	31	14.6	15.4	-0.78	15.3	12.9	2.40
Michael Doleac	47	47	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	0	9	15.1	14.4	0.76	14.9	14.7	0.13
Bo Outlaw	57	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	-5	19	14.5	15.1	-0.63	15.2	14.2	0.95
Pat Garrity	46	45	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.30	-3	12	-15	15.2	14.4	0.79	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Andrew DeClercq	28	29	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	6	-3	13.6	15.2	-1.66	15.7	14.4	1.29
Cory Alexander	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	13	-17	15.7	14.7	0.94	7.3	15.0	-7.69
Monty Williams	31	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.13	-6	15	-21	15.7	14.3	1.40	15.8	14.3	1.46
John Amaechi	34	31	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.10	-9	18	-27	15.3	14.5	0.87	13.3	15.5	-2.24
Don Reid	7	6	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	16	-23	15.9	14.7	1.19	11.8	15.0	-3.14
Troy Hudson	23	22	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.16	-14	23	-37	15.5	14.5	0.94	12.5	15.5	-2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.71,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.68,0.64,0.8,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 90, DET 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%
ORL 95, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.2%
BOS 83, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.91,1,1,1,1,1	92.2%