NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	7.0 [416]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +17.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	2.5 [579]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -19.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.21	0.01	0.05	17	84%	0.28	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	14	45%	-0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	41%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Corey Maggette	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	5	50%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	16	39%	-0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	12	33%	-0.13	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	8	35%	-0.10	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.00	10	57%	0.12	2	-0.09	10	80%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	16	59%	0.08	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	20	54%	0.09	2	-0.09	8	100%	0.02
Darvin Ham	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	10	55%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	2	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.06	0.03	14	47%	-0.03	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.5	28.0	15.7	25.3	1.6	35.3	133.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +30.4%

MIL +5.3%

MIL +30.5%

ORL -12.2%

ORL -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.5	15.2	100.0	104.1	101.7
season	13.6	14.9		100.4	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.4		105.1	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.7	13.3	17.4	14.2	14.3
MIL	13.5	18.6	16.1	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monty Williams	26	26	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.07	6	-13	19	14.6	14.2	0.40	17.5	14.8	2.61
Anthony Johnson	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	4.0	14.4	-10.39	9.0	15.6	-6.61
Michael Doleac	39	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-10	13	14.6	14.1	0.47	16.6	14.8	1.83
Ben Wallace	21	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	5	-17	17.1	13.5	3.61	14.0	16.0	-2.07
Corey Maggette	30	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-6	5	14.6	14.1	0.51	16.6	15.1	1.53
John Amaechi	47	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	2	-11	14.3	14.3	0.03	14.8	16.3	-1.45
Chucky Atkins	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.32	2	-9	11	13.4	15.4	-2.03	16.6	14.3	2.26
Pat Garrity	74	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-12	17	13.5	17.1	-3.61	16.0	14.0	2.07
Ron Mercer	70	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.17	-8	1	-9	14.1	14.9	-0.81	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Darrell Armstrong	54	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	1	-9	14.4	14.2	0.16	13.2	19.2	-5.99
Bo Outlaw	59	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	6	-19	14.9	13.2	1.75	15.8	15.2	0.56

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	76	74	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.31	18	-11	29	14.7	18.5	-3.82	14.9	12.0	2.87
Glenn Robinson	81	78	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-8	23	15.0	17.9	-2.90	14.0	15.7	-1.73
Ray Allen	80	77	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	-3	13	15.0	17.8	-2.81	14.2	14.6	-0.33
Ervin Johnson	62	59	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	-1	9	14.5	17.2	-2.70	14.2	14.4	-0.12
Tim Thomas	56	55	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	8	-9	15.2	16.0	-0.80	13.6	15.2	-1.58
Darvin Ham	59	57	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.08	1	6	-5	16.3	14.4	1.84	15.1	13.0	2.10
Scott Williams	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	9	-11	18.0	14.2	3.78	15.0	13.8	1.18
Vinny Del Negro	12	11	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	13	-19	19.8	14.9	4.89	12.2	14.6	-2.38
Rafer Alston	29	29	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	15	-23	17.2	14.8	2.37	13.3	14.7	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.9%
UTA 93, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.9%
IND 91, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.5%