NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	9.5 [76]		MVP	John Stockton (UTA): +48.9%
Utah Jazz	98		Comeback	13.0 [152]		LVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): -17.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.11	0.01	15	70%	0.26	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.06
Robert Pack	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.11,0.01	-0.06	0.07	-0.00	19	47%	0.26	4	-0.26	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	36%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	14	59%	0.00	0	0.00	13	62%	-0.03
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15	-0.04	-0.14	-0.03	8	42%	-0.16	1	0.01	3	100%	0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.49	0.49	0.05	0.45	0.01	7	83%	0.61	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.48
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.31,0.29	0.29	0.05	0.23	-0.02	18	60%	0.35	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.10	0.00	18	51%	0.10	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
John Starks	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	12	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	7	47%	-0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,-0.05,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	8	55%	-0.01	3	-0.16	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.4	31.2	15.4	27.4	2.4	35.5	135.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +4.3%

UTA +46.6%

DEN -13.5%

UTA +6.2%

UTA +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.9	15.5	102.1	110.1	100.9
season	15.2	16.0		101.4	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		100.5	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.5	13.5	15.0	17.1	15.5
UTA	14.7	17.8	16.3	14.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	42	42	0.39	-0.89	1.28	0.07	11	-13	24	16.0	15.2	0.87	15.6	16.3	-0.71
Robert Pack	21	19	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-6	10	15.3	15.6	-0.33	17.6	15.5	2.15
Kevin Willis	60	55	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	0	-2	15.5	15.6	-0.16	16.7	14.7	1.96
Nick Van Exel	82	79	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	3	-8	16.1	12.0	4.06	15.8	16.9	-1.08
James Posey	32	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.48	10	-12	22	15.3	15.7	-0.35	14.7	16.6	-1.91
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	14	11	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-5	8	9.9	16.5	-6.60	20.1	15.4	4.73
Voshon Lenard	76	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.53	-5	3	-8	15.7	15.1	0.60	15.1	19.5	-4.36
George McCloud	59	57	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.39	-15	13	-28	15.7	15.3	0.45	16.5	15.0	1.42
Antonio McDyess	84	81	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.59	-11	9	-20	15.7	14.2	1.50	15.6	19.1	-3.50

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	57	60	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.45	10	-8	18	16.7	14.6	2.16	15.4	15.8	-0.44
Karl Malone	69	76	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.46	8	-6	14	15.6	17.0	-1.43	15.9	14.2	1.70
John Starks	56	62	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-2	6	14.5	18.4	-3.85	15.8	15.0	0.78
John Stockton	52	58	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	2	-2	15.0	17.3	-2.32	15.7	15.2	0.47
Donyell Marshall	75	79	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.48	-6	8	-14	16.1	15.2	0.87	15.6	15.1	0.57
Greg Ostertag	38	42	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	-1	4	17.2	15.0	2.12	14.2	16.6	-2.44
Jacque Vaughn	37	36	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	0	2	17.3	15.0	2.32	15.2	15.7	-0.47
Scott Padgett	1	0	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	2	-2	0.0	16.1	-16.12	0.0	15.5	-15.54
Danny Manning	20	18	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	8	-14	17.0	15.6	1.43	14.2	15.9	-1.70
Olden Polynice	40	39	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.08	-5	7	-12	15.8	16.0	-0.22	16.6	14.8	1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.33,0.17,0.27,0.23,0.13,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.26,0.34,0.22,0.1,0.22,0.45,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, LAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.91,1	91.3%
HOU 103, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.17,0.27,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.73,1	90.2%
GSW 109, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.18,0.28,0.56,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.69,1	90.1%