NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	6.6 [472]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +13.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	92		Comeback	1.9 [187]		LVP	Robert Horry (LAL): -16.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.01	8	78%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.04	0.03	13	79%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	60%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	13	70%	0.13	5	-0.11	7	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	21	52%	0.04	4	-0.04	8	87%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	8	24%	-0.09	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	27	55%	0.13	6	-0.20	8	87%	0.01
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	22	52%	-0.08	2	-0.07	16	44%	-0.16
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	7	12%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.8	38.0	19.8	26.5	2.8	39.3	152.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.0%

LAL -1.0%

MIA +2.4%

MIA +13.0%

LAL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.9	15.5	113.2	101.1	100.9
season	16.3	15.6		98.4	106.8
opponent	15.2	16.1		101.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.8	15.7	19.9	14.3	16.7
LAL	18.2	14.3	14.4	13.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	75	72	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.03	24	-13	37	16.5	17.9	-1.39	15.1	14.2	0.97
Anthony Mason	79	79	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.20	10	1	9	16.6	17.4	-0.80	14.9	14.8	0.10
Eddie Jones	83	84	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	-2	15	16.4	19.9	-3.45	14.9	15.0	-0.08
Brian Grant	57	55	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	-1	13	15.8	18.2	-2.41	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Bruce Bowen	54	55	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.03	14	-3	17	17.3	15.8	1.50	15.6	13.8	1.80
Dan Majerle	37	36	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.21	-3	14	-17	15.8	17.3	-1.50	13.8	15.6	-1.80
Todd Fuller	3	4	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.03	2	9	-7	13.0	16.9	-3.85	8.7	15.2	-6.46
Duane Causwell	9	8	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	10	-9	17.8	16.6	1.17	21.0	14.3	6.66
A.C. Green	33	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	16	-21	18.8	15.5	3.28	14.7	15.0	-0.29
Anthony Carter	25	27	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.25	-13	24	-37	18.2	16.2	1.98	14.0	15.3	-1.37

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Foster	13	12	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-12	13	15.5	14.8	0.72	16.4	16.8	-0.36
Devean George	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	9.0	15.0	-5.99	13.0	16.8	-3.77
Tyronn Lue	5	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.09	-5	-6	1	6.8	15.4	-8.60	6.0	17.3	-11.35
Brian Shaw	42	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.14	0	-11	11	14.3	15.4	-1.10	15.9	17.5	-1.60
Isaiah Rider	50	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-8	5	13.8	16.2	-2.40	15.0	18.9	-3.92
Robert Horry	55	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-11	11	15.7	13.8	1.85	17.0	16.3	0.67
Mark Madsen	29	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-5	-1	15.0	14.9	0.06	17.9	16.2	1.63
Ron Harper	41	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	16.2	13.8	2.40	18.9	15.0	3.92
Kobe Bryant	84	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-6	1	15.2	11.6	3.63	17.4	8.3	9.14
Shaquille O'Neal	80	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	2	-15	14.8	15.7	-0.91	16.9	15.6	1.26
Rick Fox	55	54	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	7	-25	15.1	14.7	0.33	16.4	17.2	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.37,0.36,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, OKC 74	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.62,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.14,0.03,0.02,0,0	93.1%
PHI 89, MIL 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.13,0.26,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.05,0,0	92.8%
PHX 91, HOU 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0	92.8%