NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	78		Excitement	4.4 [908]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +7.8%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	1.9 [794]		LVP	Kendall Gill (NJN): -14.3%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	21	56%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Sherman Douglas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	71%	0.08	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.02	-0.05	4	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	9	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Lucious Harris	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	6	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	6	14%	-0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	16	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	10	62%	0.07	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	14	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	8	69%	0.04	4	-0.06	10	80%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	11	46%	0.01	3	-0.04	4	50%	0.01
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.0	32.0	15.8	22.2	2.5	34.2	131.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.2%

NJN -0.9%

MIA +17.5%

MIA +11.0%

MIA +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	18.0	15.5	89.7	97.6	100.9
season	15.5	16.3		97.8	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.1		96.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	17.0	13.7	17.9	15.2	15.9
MIA	17.3	18.4	17.2	19.0	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sherman Douglas	49	47	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.47	16	-19	35	14.9	17.3	-2.43	18.5	17.4	1.15
Kendall Gill	64	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.36	9	-12	21	15.2	17.9	-2.71	18.8	15.8	3.01
Aaron Williams	70	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.28	5	-8	13	16.1	15.2	0.85	19.1	13.8	5.27
Johnny Newman	42	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-3	3	15.3	16.5	-1.23	16.7	19.1	-2.39
Vladimir Stepania	7	7	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	9	-21	17.6	15.8	1.80	14.0	18.4	-4.38
Stephen Jackson	29	28	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	9	-21	17.0	15.4	1.62	18.2	17.9	0.25
Lucious Harris	41	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	8	-19	16.5	15.4	1.17	17.4	18.6	-1.19
Stephon Marbury	67	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	1	-5	16.2	14.9	1.26	17.7	19.2	-1.49
Kenyon Martin	66	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.31	-6	3	-9	16.3	14.7	1.59	17.7	19.2	-1.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	73	77	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.29	10	-7	17	17.3	23.5	-6.24	16.7	10.0	6.69
Bruce Bowen	72	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-5	13	17.8	19.1	-1.24	16.2	14.2	2.03
Tim Hardaway	63	66	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	-3	9	17.5	19.6	-2.16	16.3	14.7	1.59
Brian Grant	65	68	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-3	9	18.1	17.6	0.58	15.6	16.9	-1.32
Eddie Jones	71	75	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.24	7	-4	11	17.6	20.3	-2.71	16.2	14.2	1.94
Dan Majerle	23	24	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.27	-9	12	-21	19.7	17.3	2.39	14.2	16.6	-2.36
Eddie House	20	21	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	6	-9	19.6	17.5	2.16	14.7	16.3	-1.59
A.C. Green	28	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.21	-10	13	-23	19.7	17.2	2.51	14.6	16.6	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.94,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, BOS 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
POR 84, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CHI 99, WAS 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%