NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	102		Excitement	8.6 [127]		MVP	Vin Baker (SEA): +40.7%
Seattle SuperSonics	104		Comeback	2.5 [601]		LVP	Derrick Coleman (CHH): -15.0%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.11,0.41	0.05	0.35	-0.01	16	65%	0.49	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	6	95%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.06
Lee Nailon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	13	47%	0.02	1	-0.04	10	70%	-0.06
Eldridge Recasner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	17	50%	0.06	2	-0.17	4	100%	0.03
Derrick Coleman	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.03

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,0.41	0.41	-0.05	0.46	-0.00	14	47%	0.48	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05
Brent Barry	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.15	0.01	10	82%	0.36	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Patrick Ewing	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	13	47%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	20	52%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	9	64%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.08
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.03	2	75%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.0	26.1	16.8	23.2	1.6	39.0	138.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +58.8%

CHH -17.0%

CHH -16.4%

SEA +13.9%

SEA +10.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	SEA	NBA	CHH	SEA	NBA
this game	17.3	14.9	15.5	113.3	116.9	100.9
season	15.8	15.2		99.7	103.8
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.5	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	12.6	22.8	18.6	16.0	17.3
SEA	16.2	12.1	14.1	16.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	24	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	1	-4	16.8	17.4	-0.61	13.8	15.3	-1.44
Lee Nailon	27	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	5	-12	16.5	17.6	-1.08	13.3	15.6	-2.29
Eldridge Recasner	14	13	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	4	-10	20.5	16.7	3.82	14.9	14.9	0.04
Baron Davis	76	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.40	4	-6	10	16.7	20.5	-3.82	14.9	14.9	-0.04
Jamal Mashburn	73	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-7	12	17.1	17.9	-0.82	15.4	12.5	2.91
P.J. Brown	72	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-6	10	17.6	15.9	1.74	15.0	14.4	0.66
Derrick Coleman	57	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-5	8	17.5	16.9	0.53	15.1	14.5	0.59
Otis Thorpe	41	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	9	-20	17.2	17.4	-0.20	14.5	15.3	-0.82
David Wesley	66	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-3	4	17.4	16.8	0.61	15.3	13.8	1.44

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	52	52	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.42	15	-13	28	13.6	16.6	-3.01	17.6	16.8	0.85
Rashard Lewis	60	60	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-7	16	15.2	14.2	1.06	17.9	16.1	1.77
Gary Payton	81	81	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.49	-1	3	-4	15.0	13.2	1.80	16.8	21.6	-4.75
Brent Barry	76	78	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.43	1	1	0	14.5	17.3	-2.83	17.5	15.7	1.76
Jelani McCoy	44	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	-5	12	13.5	16.2	-2.74	19.6	15.2	4.37
Shammond Williams	13	14	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.10	9	-7	16	13.0	15.2	-2.21	16.9	17.3	-0.41
Ruben Patterson	42	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.41	-12	14	-26	16.6	13.4	3.23	15.8	18.7	-2.94
Desmond Mason	38	38	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	10	-18	15.3	14.6	0.70	16.6	17.8	-1.26
Patrick Ewing	39	40	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.06	-10	12	-22	16.5	13.7	2.80	16.4	17.9	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.59,0.61,0.77,0.56,0.64,0.77,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 113, MIL 116	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.37,0.47,0.41,1	91.7%
GSW 98, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.47,0.47,0.77,0.78,0.58,1	91.6%
NJN 105, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	91.5%