NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	5.6 [678]		MVP	Mike Miller (ORL): +9.9%
Indiana Pacers	103		Comeback	2.4 [651]		LVP	John Amaechi (ORL): -14.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.03	0.01	-0.06	7	79%	0.11	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	70%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	31	53%	-0.00	0	0.00	19	79%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	7	33%	-0.03	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.15	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	9	33%	-0.12	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	17	58%	0.12	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	25	60%	0.17	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	9	74%	0.10	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zan Tabak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	8	35%	0.00	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.3	31.6	18.5	30.4	2.7	36.3	148.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +37.7%

ORL -1.1%

IND +21.5%

ORL -16.2%

IND +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	13.8	17.0	15.5	98.9	110.8	100.9
season	14.6	15.9		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.9	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	12.1	15.2	15.5	13.8
IND	18.4	15.2	18.4	16.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	35	34	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.25	14	-24	38	15.2	13.0	2.23	18.4	16.3	2.10
Troy Hudson	20	18	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-13	16	12.8	14.1	-1.27	14.4	17.7	-3.26
Mike Miller	47	46	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.23	8	-18	26	14.1	13.5	0.57	16.7	17.4	-0.69
Monty Williams	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.09	-5	-5	0	13.9	13.8	0.13	15.8	17.2	-1.36
Michael Doleac	26	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-7	4	15.2	13.3	1.87	18.1	16.6	1.46
Pat Garrity	46	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.11	-16	6	-22	12.1	15.4	-3.35	15.2	18.9	-3.70
Tracy McGrady	87	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.23	-9	-1	-8	13.8	14.0	-0.22	17.0	16.7	0.33
Bo Outlaw	72	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	2	-14	14.3	12.1	2.23	17.5	15.4	2.06
John Amaechi	52	51	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.09	-17	7	-24	12.7	15.1	-2.43	17.2	16.9	0.30
Darrell Armstrong	74	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.21	-13	3	-16	14.1	12.8	1.27	17.7	14.4	3.26

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	74	75	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.15	24	-14	38	16.9	17.6	-0.77	14.1	12.5	1.66
Jalen Rose	85	85	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-2	14	16.6	21.5	-4.90	14.0	11.8	2.23
Jeff Foster	48	49	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.01	19	-9	28	17.3	16.7	0.60	13.2	14.5	-1.28
Jermaine O'Neal	56	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	7	-4	18.1	15.3	2.82	15.1	11.8	3.37
Jonathan Bender	44	46	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	4	2	18.9	15.4	3.50	14.2	13.4	0.82
Austin Croshere	54	54	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	10	-10	16.2	18.2	-2.04	13.6	14.0	-0.40
Derrick McKey	23	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	11	-12	16.5	17.2	-0.72	15.5	13.3	2.22
Zan Tabak	7	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	11	-12	20.4	16.7	3.68	14.3	13.8	0.53
Al Harrington	23	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	14	-18	16.2	17.3	-1.07	11.9	14.4	-2.50
Sam Perkins	17	18	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	15	-20	15.6	17.3	-1.68	11.8	14.3	-2.43
Travis Best	34	34	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.08	-3	13	-16	16.0	17.6	-1.56	12.0	14.8	-2.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 103, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
NOH 85, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
ATL 83, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.86,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	93.9%