NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	88		Excitement	5.7 [654]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +11.9%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	2.4 [816]		LVP	Elton Brand (CHI): -11.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khalid El-Amin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	71%	0.09	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Fizer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	1	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Dragan Tarlac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	23	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Corey Benjamin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	6	40%	-0.03	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Bryce Drew	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Elton Brand	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	19	43%	-0.09	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.02	14	66%	0.16	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	16	66%	0.14	2	-0.04	15	73%	-0.02
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	14	55%	0.08	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.5	30.0	16.5	27.4	2.4	27.6	133.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +46.6%

ORL +3.3%

CHI -4.4%

ORL +2.6%

ORL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.5	91.7	101.0	100.9
season	16.4	14.6		95.2	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.1		100.8	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	15.7	14.4	18.0	15.7
ORL	12.0	13.2	15.0	16.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dragan Tarlac	9	9	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.01	2	-13	15	16.7	15.6	1.05	9.3	14.5	-5.13
Metta World Peace	43	45	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.20	9	-20	29	16.8	14.8	1.94	15.0	13.1	1.87
Corey Benjamin	15	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-11	11	15.0	15.9	-0.85	13.9	14.0	-0.15
Khalid El-Amin	15	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-8	5	16.2	15.6	0.57	16.1	13.6	2.45
Brad Miller	41	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	15.5	15.9	-0.45	14.3	13.7	0.56
Marcus Fizer	27	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-8	5	16.9	15.3	1.63	14.1	13.9	0.21
Michael Ruffin	37	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-5	-1	14.5	16.5	-1.92	14.5	13.7	0.80
Elton Brand	84	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	15.9	14.5	1.39	14.2	12.7	1.41
Fred Hoiberg	75	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	1	-13	15.6	16.0	-0.42	13.8	14.6	-0.74
Bryce Drew	44	44	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	5	-21	14.9	16.4	-1.49	12.6	15.1	-2.58
Ron Mercer	90	92	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.21	-10	-1	-9	15.7	15.8	-0.12	13.9	15.5	-1.61

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	50	51	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-6	23	14.4	13.6	0.76	16.5	14.9	1.56
Darrell Armstrong	80	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	0	11	14.1	13.6	0.46	15.5	16.7	-1.16
Michael Doleac	64	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-1	13	13.9	14.2	-0.33	15.4	16.3	-0.84
Tracy McGrady	90	88	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	0	11	14.0	14.1	-0.15	16.0	13.0	2.97
Pat Garrity	62	60	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	2	7	14.1	13.9	0.20	15.2	16.6	-1.34
Monty Williams	32	31	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	12	-13	14.7	13.7	0.99	16.4	15.4	0.99
Troy Hudson	13	10	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	9	-7	11.1	14.4	-3.36	14.6	15.8	-1.25
Don Reid	23	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	12	-13	13.1	14.3	-1.18	15.4	15.8	-0.37
John Amaechi	76	76	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	16	-21	14.2	13.3	0.92	15.7	15.6	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.81,0.86,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.86,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	94.2%
SAS 99, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.67,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.97,0.99,1	93.5%
POR 101, UTA 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.52,0.66,0.63,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%