NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	6.6 [515]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +13.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	106		Comeback	2.5 [224]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -13.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	-0.02	0.05	9	84%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.01	9	67%	0.16	3	-0.09	6	33%	-0.08
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.06	0.02	10	85%	0.20	6	-0.18	7	100%	0.04
Robert Horry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	10	30%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.06	0.04	16	55%	0.02	5	-0.15	6	50%	-0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	0.01	25	63%	0.25	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.07	0.01	15	53%	0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.07	0.00	12	67%	0.19	6	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	8	50%	0.10	4	-0.07	6	17%	-0.05
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Smush Parker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	28.3	16.5	26.5	2.6	33.7	133.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -1.2%

LAL +15.2%

LAL +19.4%

LAL +15.5%

LAL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.4	15.4	104.2	112.8	104.5
season	16.2	15.3		107.5	106.3
opponent	14.9	15.4		107.3	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	15.1	16.4	13.8	15.1
LAL	16.5	14.9	13.4	16.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	22	24	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.03	7	-14	21	16.4	14.7	1.69	17.0	14.9	2.13
Tim Duncan	73	75	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.30	14	-21	35	14.8	15.8	-0.98	16.3	12.0	4.28
Michael Finley	46	43	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-10	13	16.3	13.9	2.32	15.7	15.2	0.48
Matt Bonner	8	8	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-9	11	10.2	15.5	-5.26	12.1	15.7	-3.60
Beno Udrih	29	29	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.13	5	-12	17	15.7	14.8	0.95	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Brent Barry	33	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	14.7	15.3	-0.56	16.5	14.8	1.75
Bruce Bowen	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	15.9	12.2	3.69	15.6	14.8	0.78
Tony Parker	66	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	5	-17	14.8	15.7	-0.95	15.4	15.3	0.10
Manu Ginobili	53	52	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.30	-8	1	-9	12.9	17.8	-4.84	14.5	16.6	-2.13
Francisco Elson	34	29	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.08	-21	14	-35	14.6	15.3	-0.74	13.2	16.4	-3.14
Robert Horry	37	35	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.08	-21	14	-35	16.5	14.2	2.33	14.7	15.8	-1.16

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Walton	69	70	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-3	13	14.8	17.0	-2.16	14.4	17.0	-2.63
Lamar Odom	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-4	15	15.0	17.8	-2.73	14.5	18.1	-3.61
Kwame Brown	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-1	9	14.7	16.8	-2.17	14.3	16.5	-2.13
Smush Parker	60	59	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	0	7	14.9	16.3	-1.33	14.5	16.0	-1.51
Kobe Bryant	77	76	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	5	-3	15.5	14.9	0.65	15.1	14.9	0.14
Maurice Evans	30	33	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	6	-5	16.1	15.1	1.06	16.3	14.4	1.90
Jordan Farmar	34	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	16.3	14.9	1.33	16.0	14.5	1.51
Andrew Bynum	32	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	8	-9	16.8	14.7	2.17	16.5	14.3	2.13
Brian Cook	25	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	10	-13	17.0	14.8	2.16	17.0	14.4	2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.67,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.81,0.86,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.5%
MIN 85, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.82,0.92,0.87,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	92.9%
CHA 106, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.33,0.24,0.3,0.44,0.55,0.63,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.69,0.65,0.83,0.8,0.85,0.77,0.91,1	92.4%