NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.0 [206]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +51.7%
Washington Wizards	90		Comeback	7.0 [148]		LVP	Bruce Bowen (MIA): -15.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.52	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.22,0.52,0.52	0.10	0.44	0.02	11	72%	0.54	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.15	0.00	15	54%	0.17	0	0.00	7	71%	0.05
Anthony Mason	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.06
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	9	55%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.12
Brian Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	16	47%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	6	14%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerard King	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	4	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.02	9	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.27,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	14	65%	0.33	3	-0.25	6	100%	0.06
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	11	54%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.01,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	0.04	0.00	16	34%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.04
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	12	35%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	3	37%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	23.6	15.3	27.6	2.3	33.6	131.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.2%

WAS -11.3%

WAS -13.0%

MIA +25.2%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	17.9	15.7	15.5	108.1	105.9	100.9
season	16.3	15.2		98.4	98.6
opponent	15.2	16.1		105.5	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.6	17.6	17.7	17.0	17.9
WAS	17.4	14.3	14.2	17.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	51	50	1.09	-0.59	1.67	0.65	15	-12	27	17.2	19.0	-1.85	16.0	15.3	0.73
Brian Grant	61	61	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.54	-1	4	-5	18.3	17.1	1.14	15.3	16.9	-1.64
Eddie Jones	74	73	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	-3	9	17.9	18.1	-0.18	16.0	14.2	1.83
A.C. Green	46	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	-5	13	17.3	18.7	-1.39	16.5	14.8	1.68
Anthony Mason	68	67	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.17	-2	5	-7	18.1	17.2	0.97	15.6	16.1	-0.47
Tim Hardaway	68	67	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	2	-1	18.2	17.0	1.18	16.0	14.9	1.01
Bruce Bowen	62	62	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.19	-12	15	-27	18.2	17.1	1.12	15.0	17.9	-2.92

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	48	48	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.05	8	-11	19	15.5	16.1	-0.55	19.9	15.5	4.35
Calvin Booth	11	10	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-4	5	11.7	16.3	-4.61	23.6	17.2	6.42
Gerard King	26	28	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.13	-4	1	-5	17.0	15.2	1.76	17.3	18.2	-0.90
Tyrone Nesby	4	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-1	-1	17.0	15.7	1.32	15.2	18.1	-2.90
Jahidi White	42	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.17	4	-7	11	16.1	15.3	0.79	18.4	17.5	0.93
Chris Whitney	19	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	2	-7	15.1	15.9	-0.89	19.0	17.6	1.35
Rod Strickland	66	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-5	7	15.9	15.1	0.89	17.4	20.0	-2.58
Michael Smith	25	24	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	3	-9	16.8	15.3	1.56	16.2	18.6	-2.33
Juwan Howard	66	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	15.3	17.4	-2.16	17.9	18.1	-0.23
Felipe Lopez	64	66	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.48	-3	0	-3	15.8	15.6	0.16	17.4	19.6	-2.18
Richard Hamilton	54	53	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.43	-9	6	-15	15.8	15.6	0.20	17.1	19.3	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.88,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.14,0.29,0.55,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 110, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.16,0	90.8%
DAL 111, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.19,0.45,0.57,0.16,0	90.4%
PHI 98, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.28,0.31,0.26,0	90.0%