NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	94		Excitement	6.6 [470]		MVP	Olden Polynice (UTA): +8.3%
Detroit Pistons	79		Comeback	2.0 [623]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -18.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Olden Polynice	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Bryon Russell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	10	65%	0.12	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Greg Ostertag	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	12	52%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Quincy Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.05	-0.00	9	33%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	0.07	22	50%	-0.08	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
John Stockton	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.05	-0.03	4	10%	-0.06	4	-0.11	2	50%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	4	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	11	43%	-0.00	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.03
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	9	33%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.04	-0.13	0.02	27	54%	-0.11	3	-0.08	15	53%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.5	29.5	15.4	23.4	2.4	28.6	124.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +23.4%

UTA +4.3%

UTA +4.0%

UTA +13.8%

UTA +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DET	NBA	UTA	DET	NBA
this game	15.1	15.0	15.5	98.9	82.3	100.9
season	16.0	14.3		105.3	97.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		99.6	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.5	16.3	16.5	12.9	15.1
DET	13.3	17.1	17.8	12.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	40	41	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.06	24	-9	33	12.5	17.1	-4.53	15.1	14.9	0.15
Donyell Marshall	51	52	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.09	22	-7	29	13.1	17.5	-4.34	14.3	15.8	-1.53
John Stockton	59	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	3	9	16.2	13.5	2.70	15.1	14.9	0.15
Quincy Lewis	25	26	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.02	12	3	9	11.8	16.3	-4.54	17.5	14.1	3.47
Bryon Russell	64	64	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	7	1	16.3	12.8	3.43	14.5	15.9	-1.39
Karl Malone	76	77	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	10	-5	16.3	10.4	5.97	14.3	17.9	-3.60
Greg Ostertag	30	30	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	13	-11	14.8	15.3	-0.56	16.0	14.5	1.49
Jacque Vaughn	36	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	12	-9	13.5	16.2	-2.70	14.9	15.1	-0.15
Olden Polynice	42	42	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	17	-19	16.5	14.1	2.38	15.8	14.4	1.42
John Starks	52	52	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.01	-11	26	-37	16.8	13.2	3.58	14.8	15.3	-0.53

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	43	46	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-18	21	16.2	14.1	2.13	15.7	14.6	1.11
Mikki Moore	18	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-15	15	17.0	14.6	2.45	13.7	15.4	-1.68
Mateen Cleaves	47	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	-8	1	13.9	16.1	-2.27	14.2	16.0	-1.72
Jud Buechler	36	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.14	-7	-8	1	13.8	15.7	-1.88	14.2	15.7	-1.53
Cedric Ceballos	20	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-9	3	16.0	14.7	1.31	12.3	15.8	-3.47
Eric Montross	16	14	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-9	3	17.6	14.5	3.06	11.6	15.8	-4.19
Ben Wallace	76	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-10	5	14.4	17.1	-2.70	16.0	11.6	4.46
John Wallace	7	8	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-11	7	10.3	15.4	-5.10	21.6	14.6	7.07
Joe Smith	33	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-8	1	13.9	15.6	-1.72	15.6	14.8	0.78
Jerry Stackhouse	79	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-4	-7	14.9	15.5	-0.63	16.2	10.7	5.46
Chucky Atkins	49	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-7	-1	16.1	13.9	2.27	16.0	14.2	1.72
Jerome Williams	56	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	2	-19	15.3	14.6	0.70	13.5	17.3	-3.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.42,0.26,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 106, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.67,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.24,0.18,0.04,0,0,0,0	93.8%
NYK 107, TOR 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	92.6%
ATL 84, DEN 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.14,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.3%