NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	6.9 [404]		MVP	Gerard King (WAS): +9.3%
Washington Wizards	107		Comeback	6.3 [239]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (MIL): -17.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	18	66%	0.08	5	-0.10	20	95%	0.10
Sam Cassell	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	19	55%	0.04	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Mark Pope	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	17	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	7	40%	-0.05	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	14	29%	-0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.02	5	71%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Jahidi White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	5	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	59%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	16	49%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Obinna Ekezie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	11	65%	0.07	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	18	57%	0.09	5	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	12	35%	-0.09	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	31.2	15.5	26.4	1.7	41.2	142.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +29.5%

WAS +2.1%

WAS +25.6%

MIL -2.4%

MIL -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	14.3	15.5	97.1	104.9	100.9
season	14.9	15.2		105.9	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.8		105.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.2	14.9	14.1	13.1	13.8
WAS	12.1	14.5	15.9	15.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Caffey	69	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-10	13	13.2	14.9	-1.65	14.7	13.5	1.15
Jerome Kersey	7	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-5	3	13.1	13.8	-0.68	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Sam Cassell	78	79	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.29	6	-13	19	13.9	13.4	0.55	15.3	11.0	4.29
Mark Pope	65	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-5	3	14.3	12.9	1.44	14.8	13.5	1.27
Rafer Alston	22	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	12.1	14.2	-2.14	9.4	15.6	-6.16
Tim Thomas	91	89	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-3	-1	13.4	16.7	-3.37	14.0	16.8	-2.89
Ray Allen	83	84	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-6	5	13.6	14.3	-0.71	15.2	10.0	5.25
Ervin Johnson	36	36	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	9	-25	15.4	12.9	2.52	13.3	14.9	-1.53
Lindsey Hunter	64	61	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.39	-15	8	-23	14.1	13.2	0.92	13.8	15.1	-1.34

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cherokee Parks	58	57	1.16	-0.66	1.81	0.19	33	-26	59	13.1	15.9	-2.75	14.1	13.4	0.66
Richard Hamilton	76	77	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.18	26	-19	45	13.5	16.7	-3.23	14.2	12.5	1.76
Gerard King	38	39	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.38	16	-9	25	14.7	14.1	0.66	13.8	13.7	0.11
Chris Whitney	40	41	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.31	18	-11	29	14.8	14.0	0.87	13.8	13.8	0.05
Juwan Howard	88	89	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.25	8	-1	9	14.3	14.4	-0.04	13.8	13.4	0.40
Obinna Ekezie	6	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	10	-13	15.5	14.2	1.25	13.7	13.8	-0.07
Michael Smith	13	14	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	17	-27	15.8	14.1	1.75	14.8	13.6	1.17
Mitch Richmond	65	63	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.09	-4	11	-15	13.9	15.0	-1.10	13.6	14.1	-0.49
Rod Strickland	62	62	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.02	-11	18	-29	14.0	14.8	-0.87	13.8	13.8	-0.05
Jahidi White	31	32	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	0.02	-16	23	-39	15.9	13.6	2.27	12.8	14.2	-1.40
Felipe Lopez	33	34	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	0.14	-22	29	-51	16.3	13.4	2.97	12.9	14.2	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.26,0.16,0.23,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.47,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.81,0.96,0.92,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.49,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.89,0.94,0.95,1	92.4%
BOS 92, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.83,0.89,1,1,1,1	92.0%
MEM 78, ORL 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.91,0.95,1	91.1%