NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	7.0 [395]		MVP	Keon Clark (DEN): +6.4%
Vancouver Grizzlies	92		Comeback	1.8 [311]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -23.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	13	60%	0.11	2	-0.08	9	56%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	59%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Pack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	7	33%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.07
Nick Van Exel	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	20	41%	-0.12	3	-0.08	9	67%	-0.04

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	62%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Doug West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.07	-0.03	16	53%	0.06	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	9	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.12	0.00	10	54%	-0.04	1	-0.08	4	75%	-0.05
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	10	59%	0.04	6	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.2,-0.23	-0.23	-0.15	-0.09	-0.00	20	40%	-0.12	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	25.6	15.3	26.4	2.4	37.5	132.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.8%

VAN -9.8%

VAN -7.8%

DEN +21.3%

DEN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	VAN	NBA	DEN	VAN	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	15.5	100.0	97.9	100.9
season	15.2	15.6		101.4	97.4
opponent	15.1	15.2		103.4	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	13.9	13.5	15.7	14.1
VAN	16.8	15.5	18.6	14.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	82	81	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-4	11	14.0	14.3	-0.30	16.8	13.9	2.92
Nick Van Exel	84	83	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.32	8	-5	13	13.9	15.2	-1.28	16.5	15.6	0.91
James Posey	52	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	-2	7	13.9	14.2	-0.24	16.5	16.4	0.09
Voshon Lenard	48	49	0.34	0.17	0.17	0.28	2	1	1	13.8	14.3	-0.57	15.8	17.1	-1.29
Keon Clark	40	39	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-5	13	11.8	15.7	-3.89	16.1	16.7	-0.53
Antonio McDyess	52	53	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.31	-2	5	-7	15.7	12.1	3.54	16.4	16.5	-0.18
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	47	45	0.17	0.34	-0.17	0.14	1	2	-1	14.3	13.8	0.57	17.1	15.8	1.29
George McCloud	43	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	4	-5	14.2	13.9	0.24	16.4	16.5	-0.09
Mark Strickland	14	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.05	-6	9	-15	16.6	13.6	3.04	16.3	16.5	-0.18
Robert Pack	13	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.07	-7	10	-17	13.0	14.2	-1.22	14.5	16.7	-2.22

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug West	16	18	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.07	-2	-1	-1	14.6	16.8	-2.26	11.1	14.8	-3.70
Damon Jones	42	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-8	13	16.2	16.6	-0.40	13.6	14.4	-0.82
Stromile Swift	25	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-8	13	16.0	16.6	-0.54	16.6	13.2	3.39
Bryant Reeves	40	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-3	3	17.8	15.4	2.33	13.5	14.5	-1.00
Grant Long	27	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	0	-3	16.9	16.3	0.64	15.6	13.4	2.20
Othella Harrington	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-1	-1	17.0	15.6	1.34	13.9	14.3	-0.48
Ike Austin	32	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	6	-15	15.4	17.0	-1.61	13.2	14.5	-1.38
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	82	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.50	3	-6	9	16.5	15.7	0.79	14.7	10.2	4.43
Mike Bibby	77	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	3	-9	16.2	17.5	-1.26	14.2	13.6	0.53
Kevin Edwards	72	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	3	-9	16.4	16.6	-0.20	13.7	15.2	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.13,0.19,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 91, GSW 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	94.0%
ORL 93, NYK 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.32,0.06,0.09,0.02,0	93.8%
MIL 106, CLE 94	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0	92.9%