NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	6.6 [482]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +30.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	94		Comeback	1.8 [681]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -17.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.13	0.16	-0.01	19	63%	0.30	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Ollie	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.05	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	13	61%	0.02	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.03
Michael Redd	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	7	40%	-0.06	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Sam Cassell	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	13	31%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dajuan Wagner	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	18	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	5	36%	-0.04	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.15,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	19	46%	-0.09	3	-0.06	10	50%	-0.08
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	20	43%	-0.07	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.7	26.3	14.8	26.0	1.8	25.3	118.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.3%

MIL +20.7%

CLE -20.2%

MIL +20.8%

MIL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	15.1	15.5	109.3	97.9	101.6
season	15.4	15.1		106.3	94.6
opponent	14.9	15.8		104.3	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	14.4	13.2	17.6	14.7
CLE	14.2	15.6	15.6	15.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	82	81	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.07	17	-5	22	14.4	16.7	-2.29	15.6	12.4	3.22
Ervin Johnson	47	49	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.01	12	0	12	14.0	15.4	-1.46	15.1	15.1	-0.07
Tim Thomas	71	70	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	2	8	15.1	13.7	1.47	14.8	15.8	-1.00
Kevin Ollie	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	6	0	15.1	14.3	0.80	14.1	16.2	-2.07
Anthony Mason	75	73	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.12	6	6	0	14.5	15.4	-0.82	15.3	14.5	0.78
Michael Redd	41	42	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	7	-2	14.5	14.9	-0.42	15.1	15.1	0.01
Sam Cassell	59	59	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	8	-4	14.7	14.8	-0.14	15.5	14.5	1.02
Jason Caffey	29	29	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.03	2	10	-8	16.1	14.1	2.01	14.0	15.6	-1.65
Joel Przybilla	31	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	14	-16	14.8	14.7	0.16	16.0	14.7	1.30

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jumaine Jones	34	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-13	14	14.4	15.5	-1.04	14.5	14.9	-0.40
Tyrone Hill	48	50	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-14	16	15.4	14.9	0.48	15.5	13.9	1.59
DeSagana Diop	33	31	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-8	4	15.2	15.1	0.10	13.4	15.4	-1.98
Smush Parker	48	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-9	6	15.4	14.8	0.65	15.1	14.3	0.81
Darius Miles	57	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-6	0	14.3	16.3	-1.92	14.5	15.0	-0.47
Carlos Boozer	48	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.03	-14	2	-16	14.4	15.9	-1.52	13.9	15.5	-1.56
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	63	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	15.5	14.4	1.05	15.3	13.4	1.98
Ricky Davis	81	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	2	-16	15.1	15.3	-0.26	14.5	15.9	-1.31
Dajuan Wagner	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	2	-16	15.9	13.1	2.78	15.0	14.2	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 109, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0	95.1%
IND 100, NJN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.24,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0	94.9%
CHA 111, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.27,0.18,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.5%