NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	109		Excitement	5.1 [777]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIL): +15.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	1.6 [330]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -19.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.01	14	61%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	11	77%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	10	73%	0.19	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.01
Mike James	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	-0.01	0.07	17	71%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	35%	-0.07	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.17	0.03	0.04	6	121%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	8	83%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	13	63%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	57%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.06
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	13	42%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	12	31%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.21	-0.05	-0.07	19	29%	-0.15	4	-0.05	3	33%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	4.3	29.1	19.8	25.3	3.5	43.4	147.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +53.2%

DET +7.4%

MIL -14.9%

DET +5.8%

MIL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	17.0	15.6	15.7	123.9	103.4	100.5
season	16.2	15.3		99.2	103.6
opponent	15.5	16.0		103.3	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.4	15.0	19.2	16.8	17.0
MIL	14.7	17.0	19.8	12.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	64	67	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.05	16	1	15	17.8	14.7	3.06	15.7	15.3	0.40
Ben Wallace	82	81	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.00	14	3	11	17.0	17.0	-0.02	15.6	15.0	0.63
Tayshaun Prince	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	2	13	17.3	16.0	1.36	15.6	15.6	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	64	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.14	15	2	13	17.2	16.5	0.71	15.4	16.1	-0.70
Chauncey Billups	66	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	5	7	17.4	15.6	1.79	15.8	14.9	0.87
Mike James	17	17	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	12	-7	15.4	17.4	-1.94	14.5	15.8	-1.36
Lindsey Hunter	31	31	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	12	-7	16.2	17.4	-1.16	15.4	15.7	-0.33
Darvin Ham	3	4	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.06	2	15	-13	20.3	16.9	3.47	15.5	15.6	-0.08
Mehmet Okur	28	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	16	-15	15.4	17.7	-2.38	16.0	15.4	0.67
Corliss Williamson	19	18	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	17	-17	15.3	17.4	-2.19	15.6	15.6	0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	54	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.11	1	-18	19	16.0	14.9	1.09	17.8	15.8	2.00
Toni Kukoc	42	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	-7	-3	15.0	16.1	-1.09	15.5	18.3	-2.73
Brian Skinner	29	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-9	1	16.5	15.1	1.35	15.4	17.8	-2.38
Erick Strickland	29	27	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-6	-5	15.1	15.8	-0.70	15.4	17.7	-2.21
Michael Redd	64	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	-6	-5	15.3	16.2	-0.87	17.3	16.2	1.06
Joe Smith	69	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.20	-2	-15	13	16.0	14.0	2.03	17.6	14.9	2.62
Desmond Mason	59	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-5	-7	15.1	16.5	-1.40	17.7	15.6	2.09
Brevin Knight	31	32	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	-4	-9	15.8	15.5	0.31	16.4	17.3	-0.95
Keith Van Horn	68	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.07	-19	2	-21	15.5	15.9	-0.37	17.3	15.8	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 106, CLE 94	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0	95.1%
UTA 110, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.4,0.33,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
NJN 93, WAS 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.3%