NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	3.5 [1054]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +11.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	112		Comeback	1.1 [1107]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): -7.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	23	51%	0.07	1	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	7	71%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.00	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
George McCloud	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	45%	-0.01	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	10	48%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Robert Pack	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	4	77%	0.03	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	10	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	-0.00	0.06	16	83%	0.16	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	94%	0.11	4	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.05	0.01	-0.09	8	50%	0.07	2	-0.02	4	50%	0.01
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	13	62%	0.07	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Pervis Ellison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	11	48%	0.04	4	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Wolkowyski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	337.4	1.7	30.2	14.8	26.7	0.1	33.4	444.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +32.6%

SEA +13.7%

SEA +12.8%

DEN -11.2%

SEA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	13.6	14.8	15.5	97.1	110.9	100.9
season	15.2	15.2		101.4	103.8
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.5	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	13.8	13.8	13.6	13.6
SEA	11.8	14.4	17.5	16.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy Murray	13	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-10	7	16.4	13.2	3.23	15.9	14.6	1.28
Mark Strickland	38	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-13	13	11.6	14.7	-3.09	13.4	15.5	-2.12
Antonio McDyess	36	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-15	17	13.4	13.7	-0.23	16.9	13.6	3.28
George McCloud	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-10	7	13.5	13.6	-0.12	12.8	15.4	-2.63
Terry Davis	42	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-12	11	12.7	14.2	-1.53	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	46	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-9	5	13.2	13.9	-0.76	14.9	14.7	0.19
Robert Pack	34	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-8	3	13.5	13.6	-0.10	15.1	14.7	0.41
James Posey	66	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	-6	-1	13.0	14.5	-1.48	15.3	13.9	1.39
Keon Clark	28	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.16	-15	2	-17	16.4	12.5	3.89	13.8	15.2	-1.38
Nick Van Exel	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-5	-3	13.6	13.5	0.10	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Voshon Lenard	56	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-4	-5	13.9	13.2	0.76	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Raef LaFrentz	60	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	-1	-11	14.2	12.7	1.53	15.0	14.5	0.50

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shammond Williams	59	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.04	13	0	13	14.6	15.1	-0.57	13.5	13.6	-0.05
Patrick Ewing	68	68	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.02	11	2	9	15.1	14.2	0.94	13.9	12.9	0.99
Jelani McCoy	34	35	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	6	1	15.3	14.6	0.73	15.4	12.6	2.83
Ruben Patterson	50	49	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	5	3	13.5	16.1	-2.64	14.1	13.1	0.99
Gary Payton	73	74	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	9	-5	15.3	13.5	1.82	13.1	14.9	-1.83
Vin Baker	64	63	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	8	-3	15.4	13.8	1.58	13.6	13.5	0.17
Desmond Mason	41	41	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	4	5	15.2	14.6	0.60	13.8	13.4	0.44
Rashard Lewis	68	68	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	12	-11	15.5	13.4	2.11	13.3	14.1	-0.87
Ruben Wolkowyski	30	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	10	-7	13.3	15.4	-2.10	12.8	13.9	-1.14
Emanual Davis	15	17	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	7	-1	12.5	15.2	-2.75	12.7	13.7	-1.04
Pervis Ellison	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	15	-17	10.7	14.9	-4.27	6.0	13.9	-7.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 91, GSW 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.86,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
PHI 83, MIA 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
PHI 89, DET 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%