NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	79		Excitement	1.7 [1250]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +12.3%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.0 [982]		LVP	Mike Miller (ORL): -7.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Hudson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.15	0.00	-0.18	8	33%	0.01	5	0.03	2	100%	-0.00
John Amaechi	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	11	45%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	57%	0.00	1	-0.00	4	50%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	77%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.00	-0.09	5	42%	-0.00	4	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	16	43%	0.01	4	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	7	57%	0.02	6	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.14	0.00	-0.10	6	23%	-0.02	4	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Miller	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.17	0.00	-0.09	8	24%	-0.04	3	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.00	-0.04	12	65%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Don MacLean	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	-0.07	6	89%	0.12	5	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	9	81%	0.07	2	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	83%	0.02	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	5	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	4	86%	0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	10	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	8	42%	-0.01	4	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.7	30.0	18.6	29.3	3.4	32.5	146.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.0%

MIA +6.5%

ORL -1.2%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.3	14.8	15.5	76.7	102.9	100.9
season	14.6	16.3		101.6	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.8		96.9	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.6	12.4	11.9	11.8	13.3
MIA	11.2	18.1	15.3	14.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	22	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-27	28	12.1	13.7	-1.54	13.5	15.1	-1.55
Don Reid	43	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-28	30	11.3	14.8	-3.55	14.6	14.8	-0.21
Troy Hudson	50	50	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.28	7	-33	40	12.2	14.5	-2.27	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Michael Doleac	18	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-25	24	14.3	13.1	1.19	14.6	14.8	-0.13
Pat Garrity	38	38	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-23	20	12.8	13.7	-0.85	14.3	15.0	-0.78
Monty Williams	39	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-27	28	13.9	13.0	0.88	15.0	14.6	0.40
Mike Miller	73	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.29	-22	-4	-18	12.7	14.9	-2.14	14.7	14.9	-0.21
John Amaechi	44	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.31	-24	-2	-22	15.0	12.1	2.84	15.0	14.6	0.38
Bo Outlaw	73	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.24	-22	-4	-18	13.5	13.1	0.35	15.2	13.8	1.40
Darrell Armstrong	53	52	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.54	-33	7	-40	14.5	12.2	2.27	15.0	14.5	0.50
Tracy McGrady	62	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.57	-36	10	-46	14.4	11.8	2.57	14.9	14.6	0.31

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	61	61	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.42	30	-4	34	14.5	15.2	-0.74	14.3	12.0	2.32
Anthony Mason	78	79	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.23	22	4	18	14.9	14.2	0.71	13.8	11.7	2.09
Tim Hardaway	53	53	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.53	32	-6	38	14.7	14.8	-0.04	14.3	12.3	2.00
Duane Causwell	30	32	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.19	17	9	8	14.3	15.0	-0.69	15.2	12.5	2.62
Brian Grant	39	39	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.22	17	9	8	14.8	14.7	0.15	14.7	12.5	2.12
A.C. Green	32	31	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.21	15	11	4	13.9	15.2	-1.28	13.7	13.2	0.56
Bruce Bowen	62	62	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.15	10	16	-6	15.4	13.8	1.61	12.3	15.0	-2.70
Anthony Carter	50	51	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	28	-30	15.2	14.3	0.95	12.8	13.9	-1.04
Don MacLean	48	48	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	29	-32	14.5	14.9	-0.40	12.7	13.9	-1.12
Jamal Robinson	28	30	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	33	-40	14.4	14.9	-0.45	11.2	14.2	-2.99
Eddie House	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	26	-26	16.4	14.6	1.80	9.5	13.8	-4.26
Todd Fuller	18	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	27	-28	13.8	15.0	-1.12	11.1	13.8	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 91, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%
IND 89, PHX 124	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
NJN 89, MIA 111	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%