NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	82		Excitement	5.0 [802]		MVP	Charlie Ward (NYK): +12.4%
Miami Heat	76		Comeback	1.4 [479]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -32.1%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	10	62%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Childs	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	1	125%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Larry Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Allan Houston	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.05	14	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Patrick Ewing	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	12	41%	-0.08	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.04
Latrell Sprewell	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.05	-0.05	13	31%	-0.16	6	-0.09	9	78%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	9	65%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	22	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	8	19%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.20	-0.08	0.03	18	35%	-0.28	2	-0.04	13	54%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	2.5	35.4	20.3	28.5	3.4	40.7	161.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +9.6%

NYK +29.4%

MIA -3.4%

NYK +13.0%

NYK +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	16.0	15.2	93.2	86.4	101.7
season	16.1	15.7		100.0	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.3	18.5	16.4	15.8	16.8
MIA	15.7	14.2	17.1	16.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allan Houston	80	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-4	14	16.5	19.2	-2.74	16.0	15.3	0.74
Charlie Ward	69	67	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-1	8	16.9	16.4	0.43	15.9	16.3	-0.42
Larry Johnson	73	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	4	-2	16.7	17.1	-0.45	16.0	15.7	0.36
Kurt Thomas	26	28	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-5	16	17.8	16.3	1.49	18.1	14.9	3.19
Marcus Camby	37	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	-1	8	18.1	15.8	2.37	15.9	16.0	-0.13
Patrick Ewing	62	61	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.39	-6	12	-18	16.1	18.4	-2.36	15.2	17.8	-2.61
Latrell Sprewell	74	72	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	6	-6	16.6	17.4	-0.79	15.7	17.1	-1.42
Chris Childs	19	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	7	-8	16.4	16.9	-0.43	16.3	15.9	0.42

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	51	53	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.24	9	-15	24	15.3	16.9	-1.69	15.9	18.0	-2.06
Bruce Bowen	26	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.18	4	-10	14	13.6	17.0	-3.34	17.5	16.5	1.06
Anthony Carter	32	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.18	2	-8	10	16.0	15.9	0.10	16.2	17.2	-0.98
Otis Thorpe	13	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	1	-8	19.9	15.3	4.64	17.8	16.6	1.24
Dan Majerle	67	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-3	0	16.3	15.0	1.33	16.4	17.8	-1.41
Tim Hardaway	58	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	2	-10	15.9	16.1	-0.20	17.0	16.4	0.59
Alonzo Mourning	76	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-4	2	15.9	16.2	-0.33	16.7	17.3	-0.58
Jamal Mashburn	88	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	16.0	0.0	15.97	16.8	0.0	16.76
Clar. Weatherspoon	29	27	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.03	-19	13	-32	17.0	15.5	1.54	18.5	16.0	2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.19,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 93, HOU 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%
SAC 115, WAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%
CHH 103, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%