NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	76		Excitement	8.7 [95]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +13.2%
San Antonio Spurs	79		Comeback	6.0 [128]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -29.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Rooks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Reid	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	13	48%	-0.01	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.10	4	-0.21	10	20%	-0.13
Derek Fisher	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	3	25%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	7	43%	-0.09	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	4	25%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.29	-0.07	-0.22	0.00	25	51%	0.01	5	-0.30	5	60%	-0.20

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	4	100%	0.13	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,0.11	0.11	-0.11	0.15	-0.06	19	48%	0.36	5	-0.25	6	83%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.10	-0.01	14	53%	0.18	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.01	15	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	3	14%	-0.01	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	38%	-0.03	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.8	37.2	18.6	25.2	2.4	40.4	153.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.8%

SAS +27.6%

LAL -25.8%

SAS +14.1%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	16.2	15.8	85.4	87.8	99.6
season	14.9	15.9		104.7	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.8		92.7	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.0	14.9	17.3	16.8	16.0
SAS	15.0	20.4	17.0	13.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	50	52	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.23	10	-13	23	16.0	15.9	0.15	16.7	15.6	1.11
Ruben Patterson	0	1	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.06	0	-3	3	0.0	16.0	-15.96	17.0	16.2	0.79
Derek Harper	35	34	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.06	3	-6	9	15.9	16.0	-0.02	16.3	16.2	0.12
Sean Rooks	10	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-4	5	17.2	15.8	1.40	18.7	15.8	2.82
Robert Horry	8	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-2	1	18.6	15.7	2.93	19.4	15.9	3.58
J.R. Reid	49	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	5	-13	16.4	15.3	1.10	15.7	16.8	-1.15
Glen Rice	85	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	0	-3	15.6	23.5	-7.90	15.7	24.4	-8.66
Derek Fisher	54	56	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	3	-9	16.0	15.9	0.02	16.2	16.3	-0.12
Kobe Bryant	89	89	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.47	-3	0	-3	16.0	0.0	15.96	16.2	17.0	-0.79
Shaquille O'Neal	65	64	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.43	-8	5	-13	15.5	17.2	-1.77	16.0	16.8	-0.88

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	72	69	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.42	17	-14	31	15.3	20.0	-4.72	16.1	15.6	0.46
Tim Duncan	81	78	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.48	9	-6	15	16.7	12.1	4.57	15.9	16.5	-0.57
David Robinson	55	58	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-8	19	15.1	18.1	-3.00	16.6	14.8	1.76
Avery Johnson	78	75	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	1	1	15.7	19.9	-4.26	16.0	15.6	0.46
Sean Elliott	75	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	2	-1	15.6	19.1	-3.49	15.7	16.9	-1.22
Jerome Kersey	18	19	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	3	-3	16.9	16.1	0.83	16.3	15.9	0.39
Antonio Daniels	12	14	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	2	-1	19.9	15.7	4.26	15.6	16.0	-0.46
Malik Rose	37	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.13	-1	4	-5	16.9	15.8	1.14	15.9	16.0	-0.11
Will Perdue	4	4	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	14	-25	24.7	15.8	8.92	11.7	16.2	-4.40
Jaren Jackson	18	20	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.01	-14	17	-31	20.0	15.3	4.72	15.6	16.1	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, NOH 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.79,0.86,0.58,1	91.8%
DAL 102, SAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.52,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.79,0.78,0.77,1	91.7%
ORL 98, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.91,1	91.5%