NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	7.1 [223]		MVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): +20.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	85		Comeback	2.5 [156]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIN): -20.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.08	0.12	-0.01	8	78%	0.22	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.04
David Robinson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07	-0.05	0.09	-0.04	13	47%	0.07	0	0.00	14	64%	0.03
Jerome Kersey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.01	13	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jaren Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	11	38%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Will Perdue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Elie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	15	41%	-0.10	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	17	71%	0.24	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	0.00	-0.03	20	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	12	67%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.06	-0.03	12	31%	-0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21	-0.21	-0.05	-0.15	0.00	14	40%	-0.13	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	35.4	19.4	26.3	2.5	38.6	150.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.6%

SAS +26.2%

MIN -22.0%

SAS +14.7%

SAS +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	15.8	15.8	103.4	95.5	99.6
season	15.9	15.0		101.1	98.6
opponent	15.9	15.9		98.6	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.3	17.2	16.9	15.0	16.6
MIN	13.5	19.7	15.8	15.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	75	74	0.98	-0.48	1.47	0.43	19	-12	31	16.1	19.0	-2.89	15.9	15.5	0.40
Avery Johnson	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	2	3	16.7	15.6	1.11	14.8	21.4	-6.54
Mario Elie	57	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	8	-9	16.5	16.7	-0.25	14.1	18.7	-4.66
Jerome Kersey	22	22	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	-5	17	16.0	16.7	-0.69	20.2	14.3	5.88
Tim Duncan	72	74	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	10	-13	17.4	12.9	4.55	14.4	22.9	-8.50
Sean Elliott	67	67	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	12	-17	16.7	16.0	0.69	14.3	20.2	-5.88
Jaren Jackson	32	33	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.12	8	-1	9	16.7	16.5	0.25	18.7	14.1	4.66
Will Perdue	5	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	5	-3	14.4	16.7	-2.29	18.0	15.6	2.36
Antonio Daniels	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.09	2	5	-3	15.6	16.7	-1.11	21.4	14.8	6.54
Gerard King	1	0	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	9	-11	2.0	16.7	-14.73	0.0	15.8	-15.80
Malik Rose	25	24	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.11	-2	9	-11	16.4	16.6	-0.17	19.5	14.4	5.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Hammonds	10	10	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.14	4	-11	15	18.0	15.5	2.48	14.0	16.9	-2.89
James Robinson	1	2	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-9	11	10.0	15.9	-5.86	3.0	16.9	-13.87
Dean Garrett	26	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-9	11	14.9	16.2	-1.29	18.9	15.6	3.28
Bobby Jackson	14	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	-1	-5	17.9	15.4	2.53	17.6	16.4	1.20
Rasho Nesterovic	32	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	-1	-5	17.3	14.9	2.37	17.0	16.3	0.67
Malik Sealy	37	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-5	3	17.4	14.6	2.80	17.1	16.2	0.82
Anthony Peeler	51	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.21	-5	-2	-3	14.7	17.2	-2.51	16.5	16.7	-0.22
Terrell Brandon	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-6	5	15.4	17.9	-2.53	16.4	17.6	-1.20
Kevin Garnett	85	86	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	-1	-5	15.7	18.5	-2.83	16.6	16.0	0.58
Sam Mitchell	63	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	4	-15	16.2	14.9	1.29	15.9	18.3	-2.41
Joe Smith	51	51	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.49	-6	-1	-5	14.6	17.4	-2.74	16.8	16.3	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.46,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.47,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0	92.0%
MEM 110, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.02,0	91.9%
POR 109, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.06,0,0	91.5%