NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	10.8 [27]		MVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): +15.0%
Utah Jazz	109		Comeback	3.7 [288]		LVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): -21.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	16	57%	0.11	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.05
Carl Herrera	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.00	9	56%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	0.07	-0.12	0.02	14	72%	0.03	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.13,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	17	53%	-0.01	3	-0.09	15	67%	-0.18
Jaren Jackson	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21	-0.02	-0.16	0.03	11	54%	-0.08	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.13	0.00	6	73%	0.19	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.05
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.10	0.00	26	39%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.16
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.09	-0.03	11	65%	0.11	1	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Adam Keefe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.09	-0.00	14	62%	0.11	2	-0.15	6	83%	0.04
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.05	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.03	-0.19	-0.01	13	62%	0.05	2	-0.20	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	57.4	2.7	25.8	16.8	29.0	2.5	31.4	1.8	20.6	187.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +19.9%

UTA +17.1%

UTA +18.1%

SAS -20.3%

UTA +15.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	17.3	16.2	15.6	112.8	113.5	102.5
season	15.9	15.9		100.9	108.1
opponent	15.9	15.9		102.1	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	17.8	19.6	16.1	16.1	16.2	17.3
UTA	15.7	14.7	16.6	19.0	13.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Perdue	38	41	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.09	1	-4	5	16.1	18.1	-1.92	16.3	16.2	0.10
Carl Herrera	12	13	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-9	15	19.2	17.0	2.17	16.5	16.2	0.38
Reggie Geary	19	19	-0.04	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-8	13	17.2	17.3	-0.08	16.9	16.0	0.92
Jaren Jackson	51	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	1	-5	17.6	16.9	0.72	15.2	17.5	-2.30
Chuck Person	56	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-1	-1	16.6	18.3	-1.66	16.4	16.0	0.38
David Robinson	74	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.40	1	-4	5	17.6	16.1	1.49	16.1	16.5	-0.44
Avery Johnson	72	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	4	-11	17.4	16.9	0.54	16.2	16.2	0.05
Vinny Del Negro	59	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.42	-5	2	-7	17.6	16.7	0.99	16.5	15.8	0.69
Tim Duncan	89	90	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.45	-10	7	-17	17.1	19.6	-2.45	16.4	13.5	2.89

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Carr	47	46	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.67	7	-4	11	15.3	17.1	-1.78	17.2	17.3	-0.07
Jeff Hornacek	75	73	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-9	21	15.6	18.5	-2.96	17.0	18.4	-1.42
Bryon Russell	75	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	15.9	17.3	-1.38	16.6	19.7	-3.08
Karl Malone	78	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.40	6	-3	9	15.9	17.3	-1.38	17.0	18.5	-1.51
John Stockton	70	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-4	11	15.6	17.8	-2.19	17.6	16.4	1.23
Howard Eisley	26	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	7	-11	17.8	15.6	2.19	16.4	17.6	-1.23
Greg Foster	46	44	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.15	3	0	3	17.2	15.3	1.81	16.9	17.6	-0.78
Adam Keefe	19	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	5	-7	16.7	16.1	0.66	19.4	16.7	2.62
Shandon Anderson	23	23	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.09	-8	11	-19	18.9	15.4	3.50	18.7	16.8	1.94
Greg Ostertag	21	22	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.09	-10	13	-23	17.1	15.9	1.20	19.2	16.7	2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.47,0.63,0.68,0.53,0.54,0.31,0.29,0.45,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 87, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.58,1	88.2%
TOR 94, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.68,0.58,1	88.1%
MIL 86, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	87.9%