NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	90		Excitement	5.5 [687]		MVP	Anthony Peeler (MIN): +15.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Comeback	3.2 [397]		LVP	Gary Payton (SEA): -12.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate McMillan	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	13	61%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Detlef Schrempf	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	13	53%	0.04	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Sam Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	6	43%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	13	43%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.05	9	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.08	0.03	18	60%	0.04	5	-0.16	7	86%	0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	15	62%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.03	0.00	12	72%	0.17	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	12	66%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Bill Curley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Micheal Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	70%	0.02	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	18	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	11	47%	-0.06	0	0.00	8	75%	0.03
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	29.2	17.8	24.1	1.8	39.2	135.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +25.7%

MIN +14.6%

SEA -8.3%

MIN +18.5%

SEA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIN	NBA	SEA	MIN	NBA
this game	16.3	17.8	15.6	105.9	116.7	102.5
season	15.3	14.8		109.3	105.3
opponent	15.7	16.2		104.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.7	17.6	15.2	16.8	16.3
MIN	17.8	16.7	19.8	16.7	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	51	50	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-8	8	15.8	17.1	-1.36	17.9	17.6	0.24
Greg Anthony	7	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-1	-6	16.9	16.3	0.58	19.3	17.6	1.66
Vin Baker	69	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-12	16	16.3	16.6	-0.29	18.0	16.6	1.40
Hersey Hawkins	55	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-12	16	15.1	18.5	-3.41	18.3	16.8	1.53
Dale Ellis	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	0	-8	18.8	15.3	3.56	16.0	18.5	-2.51
Detlef Schrempf	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-6	4	16.2	17.0	-0.84	18.2	15.8	2.41
Gary Payton	80	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-7	6	16.0	20.8	-4.75	17.7	18.3	-0.62
Nate McMillan	26	25	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	8	-24	17.3	15.9	1.35	17.1	18.1	-0.97
Sam Perkins	44	44	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	6	-20	17.2	15.3	1.91	17.1	18.5	-1.41

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Peeler	74	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.21	13	-5	18	17.7	18.5	-0.84	15.9	20.2	-4.35
Kevin Garnett	77	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	6	-4	17.4	21.4	-4.00	16.3	16.7	-0.36
Terry Porter	76	76	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	6	-4	17.6	19.6	-2.06	15.9	19.9	-3.98
Micheal Williams	19	21	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	-4	16	17.1	18.0	-0.92	18.4	15.6	2.79
Tom Hammonds	29	28	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	18.6	17.3	1.26	19.4	14.8	4.52
Stephon Marbury	73	73	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	4	0	18.2	15.2	2.97	16.2	17.3	-1.17
Sam Mitchell	70	70	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	8	-8	17.7	18.0	-0.29	15.9	18.3	-2.35
Bill Curley	2	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	6	-4	24.0	17.6	6.39	7.0	16.6	-9.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.35,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 93, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.9%
CLE 91, MIA 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.52,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.2%
CLE 76, IND 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.1%