NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Excitement	3.6 [1052]		MVP	Mario Elie (HOU): +15.8%
Houston Rockets	112		Comeback	1.6 [796]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): -11.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	0.01	0.07	19	64%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	21	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Heal	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	0.00	0.08	2	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	3	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Doug West	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.06	7	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tom Gugliotta	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	0.07	12	42%	-0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.02	-0.04	13	72%	0.17	2	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	-0.00	11	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Barkley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.02	2	-0.01	10	60%	-0.01
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charles Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	9	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	15	39%	-0.01	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sedale Threatt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	13	58%	0.02	4	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Clyde Drexler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	13	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	37.2	2.3	28.3	17.0	26.1	1.7	27.2	139.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +21.7%

HOU +6.2%

HOU +28.0%

MIN -5.7%

MIN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	16.8	15.6	105.6	125.8	104.4
season	15.5	15.5		103.3	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.5		103.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.4	16.1	18.0	11.5	15.4
HOU	17.9	13.2	17.1	19.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	20	20	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-21	25	14.6	15.7	-1.07	17.1	16.6	0.51
Shane Heal	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-19	21	8.7	15.7	-7.00	20.0	16.6	3.36
Chris Carr	14	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-14	11	14.7	15.6	-0.85	18.1	16.5	1.66
Stojko Vrankovic	10	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.13	-6	-11	5	15.8	15.4	0.41	18.1	16.6	1.51
Sam Mitchell	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-15	13	14.0	16.2	-2.24	16.8	16.7	0.03
Cherokee Parks	21	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-14	11	13.5	16.0	-2.49	20.0	15.7	4.31
James Robinson	38	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-16	15	12.6	17.5	-4.89	17.4	16.3	1.17
Dean Garrett	59	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-9	1	16.1	14.3	1.79	15.4	19.5	-4.09
Doug West	43	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	-2	-13	17.4	13.6	3.76	15.6	17.7	-2.10
Kevin Garnett	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.05	-14	-3	-11	16.1	12.4	3.72	16.5	18.1	-1.60
Stephon Marbury	65	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.10	-21	4	-25	16.2	13.4	2.76	16.4	17.6	-1.23
Tom Gugliotta	72	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.04	-18	1	-19	15.7	14.5	1.17	17.1	15.4	1.69

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Barkley	55	57	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.20	25	-8	33	16.7	16.9	-0.26	16.9	12.8	4.13
Clyde Drexler	59	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.17	21	-4	25	16.5	17.3	-0.78	16.7	12.9	3.85
Matt Maloney	52	53	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.02	12	5	7	16.8	16.6	0.18	16.7	13.7	2.98
Hakeem Olajuwon	63	64	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	8	1	17.1	16.0	1.12	16.2	13.4	2.83
Mario Elie	59	60	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	7	3	17.6	15.1	2.54	16.6	13.1	3.55
Kevin Willis	49	49	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	13	-9	16.8	16.7	0.14	14.1	17.0	-2.92
Randy Livingston	23	23	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	14	-11	13.6	17.8	-4.24	12.3	16.5	-4.26
Eddie Johnson	49	49	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	15	-13	16.9	16.5	0.41	13.8	17.4	-3.55
Sedale Threatt	18	18	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	10	-3	18.8	16.2	2.61	15.0	15.5	-0.54
Matt Bullard	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	21	-25	14.9	16.9	-2.06	7.9	16.1	-8.22
Othella Harrington	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	21	-25	14.9	16.9	-2.06	7.9	16.1	-8.22
Charles Jones	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	15.5	16.8	-1.31	8.7	15.7	-7.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 82, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
MIN 95, CLE 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
MIL 95, LAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%