NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	6.6 [604]		MVP	Obi Toppin (NYK): +19.9%
New York Knicks	101		Comeback	3.5 [253]		LVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): -8.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.12	-0.02	13	57%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.02	16	58%	0.17	2	-0.04	11	82%	0.03
Gabe Vincent	0.12	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	16	57%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	7	60%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	12	60%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Caleb Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.08	-0.03	15	60%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	9	45%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	-0.02	3	70%	0.07	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.02
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	20	54%	0.03	4	-0.10	8	62%	-0.01
Jalen Brunson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	23	50%	0.07	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.3	28.4	16.4	27.3	2.6	39.3	140.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +13.5%

MIA +18.6%

NYK -0.4%

MIA +14.7%

MIA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	14.4	111.3	106.3	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		111.9	115.6
opponent	14.4	14.6		112.9	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	15.3	14.5	15.2	15.3
NYK	13.2	16.0	17.5	12.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	87	85	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.25	9	-2	11	15.4	14.2	1.20	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Gabe Vincent	68	68	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-4	15	15.0	16.0	-0.98	14.4	15.6	-1.17
Caleb Martin	63	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	15.4	15.0	0.38	14.3	15.5	-1.27
Bam Adebayo	77	76	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	4	-1	15.1	16.0	-0.91	14.4	16.1	-1.67
Kyle Lowry	61	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	5	-3	15.6	14.7	0.93	14.1	15.8	-1.75
Cody Zeller	14	14	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	-2	11	15.4	15.3	0.18	17.4	14.3	3.10
Max Strus	47	47	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	6	-5	14.7	15.8	-1.08	15.1	14.3	0.77
Kevin Love	34	33	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	4	-1	14.5	15.7	-1.24	15.5	14.3	1.27
Haywood Highsmith	9	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	8	-9	16.8	15.1	1.65	17.3	14.4	2.89
Duncan Robinson	25	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.10	-6	13	-19	16.6	14.8	1.73	15.2	14.6	0.66

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Hartenstein	27	28	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.09	6	-13	19	15.6	14.4	1.17	16.4	14.8	1.57
Quentin Grimes	18	19	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.03	1	-8	9	16.8	14.2	2.54	17.2	14.8	2.34
Obi Toppin	61	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-7	7	15.6	13.1	2.58	15.4	15.0	0.44
Immanuel Quickley	54	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	14.4	15.1	-0.71	15.6	14.9	0.70
RJ Barrett	80	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.15	-9	2	-11	14.1	18.0	-3.90	15.0	16.5	-1.48
Jalen Brunson	81	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	1	-9	14.7	15.0	-0.33	14.9	17.3	-2.35
Josh Hart	86	88	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.32	-8	1	-9	14.4	17.3	-2.89	15.1	16.8	-1.65
Mitchell Robinson	68	69	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	6	-19	14.4	15.6	-1.17	14.8	16.4	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.63,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.15,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.02,0	92.8%
WAS 107, MIL 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.26,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.08,0	92.8%
SAS 96, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.12,0.29,0.17,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.6%