NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	5.9 [637]		MVP	Steven Smith (SAS): +15.3%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	3.3 [557]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -25.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	11	73%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	73%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	25	57%	0.13	6	-0.17	6	67%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	64%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Mark Bryant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.07	-0.01	10	75%	0.22	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	-0.01	12	69%	0.07	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	8	39%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	11	54%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	59%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.12	-0.12	0.01	16	47%	-0.06	6	-0.20	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	24.4	17.4	26.4	1.5	26.4	122.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +17.6%

DET -2.2%

SAS +12.6%

SAS +20.6%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	17.0	15.0	15.6	105.5	96.6	102.3
season	15.8	15.7		104.3	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.7		99.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.9	16.2	16.7	18.0	17.0
DET	15.0	13.8	17.6	13.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	62	61	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.05	25	-15	40	16.7	17.6	-0.92	15.9	13.0	2.90
David Robinson	57	56	0.66	-0.16	0.83	-0.07	25	-15	40	16.9	17.0	-0.07	16.4	12.7	3.65
Tim Duncan	75	73	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	3	4	17.1	16.4	0.71	14.8	16.1	-1.27
Bruce Bowen	75	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	7	-4	17.1	16.2	0.86	14.3	18.1	-3.75
Antonio Daniels	40	39	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	6	-2	16.7	17.2	-0.50	14.5	15.4	-0.86
Steven Smith	49	48	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.00	8	2	6	17.4	16.5	0.89	15.9	14.0	1.94
Malik Rose	33	32	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	7	-4	16.8	17.0	-0.22	16.2	14.4	1.82
Danny Ferry	18	19	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.00	5	5	0	15.8	17.2	-1.40	16.5	14.6	1.85
Jason Hart	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	12.5	17.1	-4.56	3.0	15.3	-12.30
Charles Smith	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	12.5	17.1	-4.56	3.0	15.3	-12.30
Mark Bryant	15	15	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.14	-13	23	-36	17.3	16.9	0.45	10.2	16.0	-5.80
Terry Porter	27	26	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	23	-36	18.0	16.5	1.43	13.8	15.5	-1.72

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	51	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-11	12	14.5	15.7	-1.11	17.6	16.1	1.58
Damon Jones	27	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-8	6	14.6	15.2	-0.67	16.4	17.2	-0.80
Jon Barry	59	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-11	12	13.9	17.1	-3.18	17.2	16.5	0.77
Michael Curry	35	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	2	-14	16.9	13.8	3.12	16.5	17.2	-0.76
Chucky Atkins	62	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	15.2	14.6	0.67	17.2	16.4	0.80
Jerry Stackhouse	72	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	15.0	15.1	-0.12	16.9	17.3	-0.43
Zeljko Rebraca	61	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	5	-20	16.0	13.0	2.95	16.6	17.7	-1.08
Ben Wallace	78	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	-3	-4	14.6	18.1	-3.50	16.9	17.6	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.12,0.29,0.17,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.2,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.3%
LAC 109, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
UTA 96, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.02,0	93.1%