NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	121		Excitement	8.0 [281]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +40.5%
Denver Nuggets	126		Comeback	2.5 [392]		LVP	Otto Porter Jr. (GSW): -14.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.41,0.41	0.10	0.29	-0.01	23	55%	0.47	2	-0.07	14	71%	0.02
Klay Thompson	0.17	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.17	0.21	-0.05	-0.01	20	76%	0.19	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Draymond Green	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	6	87%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Jonathan Kuminga	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	69%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,-0.04	0.07	-0.09	0.02	16	59%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Poole	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	46%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.14	0.17	0.01	21	77%	0.48	7	-0.17	6	100%	0.03
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.07,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.08	0.01	11	89%	0.47	3	-0.22	5	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	11	60%	0.21	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.04
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	0.00	3	83%	0.15	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	62%	0.11	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	30%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	35.6	2.8	35.5	15.4	33.6	3.4	38.5	164.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +76.1%

DEN +3.3%

GSW -12.5%

GSW -16.7%

GSW -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	13.2	14.8	14.5	119.8	121.2	110.8
season	14.2	14.8		112.2	113.4
opponent	14.4	14.9		111.6	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.3	12.2	12.1	13.5	13.2
DEN	12.9	13.0	14.9	19.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	70	73	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.31	18	-23	41	12.2	15.5	-3.33	15.9	12.2	3.72
Jonathan Kuminga	26	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-2	-1	11.8	13.7	-1.93	13.0	15.5	-2.53
Klay Thompson	78	81	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.46	10	-15	25	12.8	14.6	-1.72	15.4	13.0	2.36
Kevon Looney	28	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-5	5	11.9	13.8	-1.91	13.1	15.5	-2.32
Nemanja Bjelica	10	10	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	4	-13	16.6	12.9	3.73	13.4	15.0	-1.59
Andrew Wiggins	78	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-10	15	13.4	12.8	0.53	15.2	13.7	1.52
Gary Payton II	13	14	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	4	-13	15.0	13.0	2.02	13.9	15.0	-1.05
Andre Iguodala	25	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	5	-15	15.1	12.6	2.50	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Otto Porter Jr.	33	35	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.07	-16	11	-27	15.0	12.4	2.66	12.7	15.9	-3.20
Jordan Poole	83	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	1	-7	13.2	13.3	-0.05	14.9	14.7	0.15
Stephen Curry	77	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	12.7	15.0	-2.26	15.4	13.3	2.09

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Rivers	77	75	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-7	19	15.1	14.0	1.08	13.0	14.0	-1.03
Bones Hyland	44	42	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.03	13	-8	21	14.3	15.2	-0.98	13.1	13.3	-0.16
Bryn Forbes	23	23	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	-8	21	13.1	15.3	-2.25	14.0	13.0	0.93
JaMychal Green	29	30	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-4	13	14.3	15.1	-0.78	14.4	12.8	1.61
DeMarcus Cousins	20	21	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	-2	9	14.9	14.8	0.14	14.6	12.9	1.74
Jeff Green	36	33	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	5	-5	13.4	15.6	-2.17	14.4	12.7	1.76
Nikola Jokic	83	80	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	7	-9	14.7	15.3	-0.62	12.9	14.6	-1.74
Aaron Gordon	76	72	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.34	-7	12	-19	15.2	14.0	1.19	12.9	14.0	-1.12
Monte Morris	62	61	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.32	-8	13	-21	15.6	13.7	1.92	12.9	13.7	-0.81
Will Barton	69	67	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.40	-12	17	-29	15.7	13.1	2.55	12.8	14.1	-1.37
Facundo Campazzo	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	5	-5	2.0	15.0	-12.96	21.0	13.2	7.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 87, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.81,0.63,0.69,0.42,1	92.1%
MIL 91, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.87,0.94,0.73,1	90.7%
GSW 109, LAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.78,0.58,1	90.7%